globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1007/s10113-018-1453-0
WOS记录号: WOS:000468544400015
论文题名:
Shared socio-economic pathways extended for the Baltic Sea: exploring long-term environmental problems
作者: Zandersen, Marianne1; Hyytiainen, Kari2; Meier, H. E. Markus3,4; Tomczak, Maciej T.5; Bauer, Barbara5; Haapasaari, Paivi E.2,6; Olesen, Jorgen Eivind7; Gustafsson, Bo G.5,8; Refsgaard, Jens Christian9; Fridell, Erik10; Pihlainen, Sampo2; Le Tissier, Martin D. A.11; Kosenius, Anna-Kaisa2; Van Vuuren, Detlef P.12,13
通讯作者: Zandersen, Marianne
刊名: REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE
ISSN: 1436-3798
EISSN: 1436-378X
出版年: 2019
卷: 19, 期:4, 页码:1073-1086
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Scenarios ; Environmental problems ; Agriculture ; Fisheries ; Shipping ; Wastewater treatment
WOS关键词: CLIMATE-CHANGE RESEARCH ; AGRICULTURAL NITROGEN ; FUTURE ; SCENARIOS ; IMPACTS ; FOOD ; SANITATION ; MANAGEMENT ; EMISSIONS ; ECOSYSTEM
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology
英文摘要:

Long-term scenario analyses can be powerful tools to explore plausible futures of human development under changing environmental, social, and economic conditions and to evaluate implications of different approaches to reduce pollution and resource overuse. Vulnerable ecosystems like the Baltic Sea in North-Eastern Europe tend to be under pressure from multiple, interacting anthropogenic drivers both related to the local scale (e.g. land use change) and the global scale (e.g. climate change). There is currently a lack of scenarios supporting policy-making that systematically explore how global and regional developments could concurrently impact the Baltic Sea region. Here, we present five narratives for future development in the Baltic Sea region, consistent with the global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) developed for climate research. We focus on agriculture, wastewater treatment, fisheries, shipping, and atmospheric deposition, which all represent major pressures on the Baltic Sea. While we find strong links between the global pathways and regional pressures, we also conclude that each pathway may very well be the host of different sectoral developments, which in turn may have different impacts on the ecosystem state. The extended SSP narratives for the Baltic Sea region are intended as a description of sectoral developments at regional scale that enable detailed scenario analysis and discussions across different sectors and disciplines, but within a common context. In addition, the extended SSPs can readily be combined with climate pathways for integrated scenario analysis of regional environmental problems.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/133911
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作者单位: 1.Aarhus Univ, Dept Environm Sci, IClimate Interdiciplinary Ctr Climate Change, Frederiksborgvej 399, DK-4000 Roskilde, Denmark
2.Univ Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
3.Leibniz Inst Balt Sea Res Warnemunde IOW, Dept Phys Oceanog & Instrumentat, Rostock, Germany
4.Swedish Meteorol & Hydrol Inst, Dept Res & Dev, Norrkoping, Sweden
5.Stockholm Univ, Balt Sea Ctr, Stockholm, Sweden
6.Univ Helsinki, Fac Biol & Environm Sci, Marine Risk Governance Grp, Ecosyst & Environm Res Programme, Helsinki, Finland
7.Aarhus Univ, Dept Agoecol, IClimate Interdisciplinary Ctr Climate Change, Tjele, Denmark
8.Univ Helsinki, Tvarminne Zool Stn, Helsinki, Finland
9.Geol Survey Denmark & Greenland GEUS, Copenhagen, Denmark
10.Swedish Environm Res Inst IVL, Stockholm, Sweden
11.UCC, Future Earth Coasts, MaREI Ctr, Cork, Ireland
12.Univ Utrecht, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, Utrecht, Netherlands
13.PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, The Hague, Netherlands

Recommended Citation:
Zandersen, Marianne,Hyytiainen, Kari,Meier, H. E. Markus,et al. Shared socio-economic pathways extended for the Baltic Sea: exploring long-term environmental problems[J]. REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE,2019-01-01,19(4):1073-1086
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