globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1029/2018GL081608
WOS记录号: WOS:000465836200039
论文题名:
Assessing Contributions of Major Emitters' Paris-Era Decisions to Future Temperature Extremes
作者: Lewis, Sophie C.1; Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E.2; Althor, Glenn3; King, Andrew D.4; Kemp, Luke5
通讯作者: Lewis, Sophie C.
刊名: GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN: 0094-8276
EISSN: 1944-8007
出版年: 2019
卷: 46, 期:7, 页码:3936-3943
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change ; extremes ; Paris ; projections ; attribution
WOS关键词: CLIMATE ; ATTRIBUTION ; MITIGATION
WOS学科分类: Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向: Geology
英文摘要:

The likelihood and severity of high-impact future temperature extremes can be reduced through climate change mitigation efforts. However, meeting the Paris Agreement warming limits requires notably stronger greenhouse gas emissions reduction efforts by major emitters than existing pledges. We examine the impact of Paris-era decision-making by the world's three largest greenhouse gas emitters (EU, USA, and China) on projected future extreme temperature events. Country-level contributions to the occurrence of future temperature extremes are calculated based on current emissions policies and sequential mitigation efforts, using a new metric called the Contribution to Excess Risk Ratio. We demonstrate the Contribution concept by applying it to extreme monthly temperature projections. In many regions, future extremes depend on the current and future carbon dioxide emissions reductions adopted by major emitters. By implementing stronger Paris-era climate pledges, major emitters can reduce the frequency of future extremes and their own calculated contributions to these temperature extremes.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/134401
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.Univ New South Wales, Sch Sci, Canberra, ACT, Australia
2.Univ New South Wales, Climate Change Res Ctr, Sydney, NSW, Australia
3.Univ Queensland, Sch Earth & Environm Sci, St Lucia, Qld, Australia
4.Univ Melbourne, Sch Earth Sci, Parkville, Vic, Australia
5.Univ Cambridge, CSER, Cambridge, England

Recommended Citation:
Lewis, Sophie C.,Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E.,Althor, Glenn,et al. Assessing Contributions of Major Emitters' Paris-Era Decisions to Future Temperature Extremes[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019-01-01,46(7):3936-3943
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