globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1029/2019GL082362
WOS记录号: WOS:000465836200042
论文题名:
Informing Future Risks of Record-Level Rainfall in the United States
作者: Sanderson, Benjamin M.1; Wobus, Cameron2; Mills, Dave3; Zarakas, Claire3,4; Crimmins, Allison5; Sarofim, Marcus C.5; Weaver, Chris5
通讯作者: Sanderson, Benjamin M.
刊名: GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN: 0094-8276
EISSN: 1944-8007
出版年: 2019
卷: 46, 期:7, 页码:3963-3972
语种: 英语
英文关键词: extreme rainfall ; climate change ; clustering ; extreme value analysis ; record precipitation
WOS关键词: EXTREME PRECIPITATION EVENTS ; TRENDS ; MANAGEMENT ; IMPACTS ; SCIENCE ; FLOODS
WOS学科分类: Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向: Geology
英文摘要:

The changing risk of extreme precipitation is difficult to project. Events are rare by definition, and return periods of heavy precipitation events are often calculated assuming a stationary climate. Furthermore, ensembles of climate model projections are not large enough to fully categorize the tails of the distribution. To address this, we cluster the contiguous United States into self-similar hydroclimates to estimate changes in the expected frequency of extremely rare events under scenarios of global mean temperature change. We find that, although there is some regional variation, record events are projected in general to become more intense, with 500-year events intensifying by 10-50% under 2 degrees C of warming and by 40-100% under 4 degrees C of warming. This analysis could provide information to inform regional prioritization of resources to improve the resilience of U.S. infrastructure.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/134404
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.CERFACS, Toulouse, France
2.Lynker Technol, Boulder, CO USA
3.Abt Associates Inc, Boulder, CO USA
4.Univ Washington, Dept Atmospher Sci, Seattle, WA 98195 USA
5.US EPA, Washington, DC 20460 USA

Recommended Citation:
Sanderson, Benjamin M.,Wobus, Cameron,Mills, Dave,et al. Informing Future Risks of Record-Level Rainfall in the United States[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019-01-01,46(7):3963-3972
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