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We conducted global simulations of temperature change due to anthropogenic trace gas emissions, which extended from the surface, through the thermosphere and ionosphere, to the exobase. These simulations were done under solar maximum conditions, in order to compare the effect of the solar cycle on global change to previous work using solar minimum conditions. The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model-eXtended was employed in this study. As in previous work, lower atmosphere warming, due to increasing anthropogenic gases, is accompanied by upper atmosphere cooling, starting in the lower stratosphere, and becoming dramatic, almost 2 K per decade for the global mean annual mean, in the thermosphere. This thermospheric cooling, and consequent reduction in density, is less than the almost 3 K per decade for solar minimum conditions calculated in previous simulations. This dependence of global change on solar activity conditions is due to solar-driven increases in radiationally active gases other than carbon dioxide, such as nitric oxide. An ancillary result of these and previous simulations is an estimate of the solar cycle effect on temperatures as a function of altitude. These simulations used modest, five-member, ensembles, and measured sea surface temperatures rather than a fully coupled ocean model, so any solar cycle effects were not statistically significant in the lower troposphere. Temperature change from solar minimum to maximum increased from near zero at the tropopause to about 1 K at the stratopause, to approximately 500 K in the upper thermosphere, commensurate with the empirical evidence, and previous numerical models.

Plain Language Summary We conducted global simulations of temperature change due to emissions of trace gases due to human activity, which extended from the surface, throughout the atmosphere, to space. These simulations were done under conditions of high solar activity, in order to compare the effect of the solar cycle to previous work using low solar activity. The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model-eXtended was employed. As in previous work, lower atmosphere warming, due to increasing emissions of greenhouse gases, is accompanied by upper atmosphere cooling, starting in the lower stratosphere, and becoming dramatic, almost 2 K per decade on average, above 100-km altitude. This upper atmosphere cooling, and consequent reduction in density, is less than the almost 3 K per decade for low solar activity conditions calculated in previous simulations. The dependence of global change on solar activity is due to solar-driven increases in other gases that cool the thermosphere, so greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide have less effect. An ancillary result is an estimate of the solar cycle effect on temperatures as a function of altitude, which increased from near zero at about 15 km to approximately 500 K at about 400 km, commensurate with previous work.