globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2018.12.057
WOS记录号: WOS:000463688800019
论文题名:
Climate impacts on hydropower in Colombia: A multi-model assessment of power sector adaptation pathways
作者: Arango-Aramburo, Santiago1; Turner, Sean W. D.2; Daenzer, Kathryn3; Pablo Rios-Ocampo, Juan1; Hejazi, Mohamad I.2,4; Kober, Tom5,6; Alvarez-Espinosa, Andres C.7; Romero-Otalora, German D.7; van der Zwaan, Bob5,8,9
通讯作者: Arango-Aramburo, Santiago
刊名: ENERGY POLICY
ISSN: 0301-4215
EISSN: 1873-6777
出版年: 2019
卷: 128, 页码:179-188
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Hydropower generation ; Climate change ; Energy modeling ; Electricity supply ; Energy-water nexus
WOS关键词: GLOBAL WATER-RESOURCES ; CHANGE MITIGATION ; 21ST-CENTURY ; PROJECTIONS ; TECHNOLOGY ; EMISSIONS ; SCARCITY ; MODEL
WOS学科分类: Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies
WOS研究方向: Business & Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
英文摘要:

Climate change is likely to affect water availability and therefore hydropower generation in many regions of the world. In drying regions, hydropower generation may be impaired, creating a need for new power investments that would otherwise have been unnecessary. In this study we apply two partial equilibrium models (GCAM and TIAM-ECN) and two general equilibrium models (MEG4C and Phoenix) to identify possible pathways of power sector adaptation for Colombia under climate change. We adopt two GCM projections that deteriorate hydropower generation over the next three decades, and simulate each for two radiative forcing scenarios (RCP8.5 and RCP4.5). Relative to Colombia's projected power demand growth over the coming decades, losses in hydropower generation are marginal. Nonetheless, climate-driven losses in hydropower must be compensated by alternative technologies'expansion, which vary significantly across models. When climate policy is implemented (RCP4.5), three distinct expansion pathways emerge: increased solar and wind energy (TIAM-ECN); significant power demand reductions (Phoenix and MEG4C); and increased fossil resources with carbon dioxide capture and storage (GCAM). We show the need to explore the tradeoffs/synergies among alternative expansion pathways and their potential impacts on other sectors (e.g. water and land), and for effective policies to incentivize their adoption in Colombia.


Citation statistics:
被引频次[WOS]:45   [查看WOS记录]     [查看WOS中相关记录]
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/136915
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: 1.Univ Nacl Colombia, Fac Minas, Decis Sci Grp, Bogota, Colombia
2.Pacific Northwest Natl Lab, Joint Global Change Res Inst, College Pk, MD 20740 USA
3.Boston Univ, Dept Geog & Environm, Boston, MA 02215 USA
4.Univ Maryland, Earth Syst Sci Interdisciplinary Ctr, College Pk, MD 20740 USA
5.Energy Res Ctr Netherlands ECN TNO, Energy Transit Studies, Amsterdam, Netherlands
6.Paul Scherrer Inst, Lab Energy Syst Anal LEA, Villigen, Switzerland
7.Dept Nacl Planeac, Bogota, Colombia
8.Johns Hopkins Univ, SAIS, Bologna, Italy
9.Univ Amsterdam, Fac Sci HIMS, Amsterdam, Netherlands

Recommended Citation:
Arango-Aramburo, Santiago,Turner, Sean W. D.,Daenzer, Kathryn,et al. Climate impacts on hydropower in Colombia: A multi-model assessment of power sector adaptation pathways[J]. ENERGY POLICY,2019-01-01,128:179-188
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