globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1029/2018EF001119
WOS记录号: WOS:000470657400002
论文题名:
Projecting Changes in Expected Annual Damages From Riverine Flooding in the United States
作者: Wobus, C.1; Zheng, P.2; Stein, J.2; Lay, C.2; Mahoney, H.2; Lorie, M.3; Mills, D.2; Spies, R.1; Szafranski, B.1; Martinich, J.4
通讯作者: Wobus, C.
刊名: EARTHS FUTURE
ISSN: 2328-4277
出版年: 2019
卷: 7, 期:5, 页码:516-527
语种: 英语
WOS关键词: CLIMATE-CHANGE ; EXTREME PRECIPITATION ; RISK ; ADAPTATION ; FRAMEWORK ; BENEFITS ; COSTS ; CMIP5
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

Inland flood risk in the United States is most often conveyed through maps of 1% annual exceedance probability (AEP) or "100-year" floodplains. However, monetary damages from flooding arise from a full distribution of events, including floods both larger and smaller than the 1% AEP event. Furthermore, floodplains are not static, since both the frequency and magnitude of flooding are likely to change in a warming climate. We explored the implications of a changing frequency and magnitude of flooding across a wide spectrum of flood events, using a sample of 376 watersheds in the United States where floodplains from multiple recurrence intervals have been mapped. Using an inventory of assets within these mapped floodplains, we first calculated expected annual damages (EADs) from flooding in each watershed under baseline climate conditions. We find that the EAD is typically a factor of 5-7 higher than the expected damages from 100-year events alone and that much of these damages are attributable to floods smaller than the 1% AEP event. The EAD from flooding typically increases by 25-50% under a 1 degrees C warming scenario and in most regions more than double under a 3 degrees C warming scenario. Further increases in EAD are not as pronounced beyond 3 degrees C warming, suggesting that most of the projected increases in flood damages will have already occurred, for most regions of the country, by that time. Adaptations that protect against today's 100-year flood will have increasing benefits in a warmer climate by also protecting against more frequent, smaller events.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/137107
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: 1.Lynker Technol, Boulder, CO 80301 USA
2.Abt Associates Inc, Boulder, CO USA
3.Corona Environm Consulting, Louisville, CO USA
4.US EPA, Washington, DC 20460 USA

Recommended Citation:
Wobus, C.,Zheng, P.,Stein, J.,et al. Projecting Changes in Expected Annual Damages From Riverine Flooding in the United States[J]. EARTHS FUTURE,2019-01-01,7(5):516-527
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