globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0446-4
WOS记录号: WOS:000466122200022
论文题名:
Reconciling opposing Walker circulation trends in observations and model projections
作者: Chung, Eui-Seok1,2; Timmermann, Axel1,2; Soden, Brian J.3; Ha, Kyung-Ja1,4; Shi, Lei5; John, Viju O.6
通讯作者: Chung, Eui-Seok
刊名: NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
ISSN: 1758-678X
EISSN: 1758-6798
出版年: 2019
卷: 9, 期:5, 页码:405-+
语种: 英语
WOS关键词: OVERTURNING CIRCULATION ; TROPICAL PACIFIC ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; VARIABILITY ; OCEAN ; CMIP5 ; PRECIPITATION ; CONNECTION ; HUMIDITY ; DRIVEN
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

A strengthening of the Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) over recent decades triggered an intense debate on the validity of model-projected weakening of the PWC in response to anthropogenic warming. However, limitations of in situ observations and reanalysis datasets have hindered an unambiguous attribution of PWC changes to either natural or anthropogenic causes. Here, by conducting a comprehensive analysis based on multiple independent observational records, including satellite observations along with a large ensemble of model simulations, we objectively determine the relative contributions of internal variability and anthropogenic warming to the emergence of long-term PWC trends. Our analysis shows that the satellite-observed changes differ considerably from the model ensemble-mean changes, but they also indicate substantially weaker strengthening than implied by the reanalyses. Furthermore, some ensemble members are found to reproduce the observed changes in the tropical Pacific. These findings clearly reveal a dominant role of internal variability on the recent strengthening of the PWC.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/137159
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: 1.Inst Basic Sci, Ctr Climate Phys, Busan, South Korea
2.Pusan Natl Univ, Busan, South Korea
3.Univ Miami, Rosenstiel Sch Marine & Atmospher Sci, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL 33149 USA
4.Pusan Natl Univ, Dept Atmospher Sci, Busan, South Korea
5.NOAA, Natl Ctr Environm Informat, Asheville, NC USA
6.EUMETSAT, Darmstadt, Germany

Recommended Citation:
Chung, Eui-Seok,Timmermann, Axel,Soden, Brian J.,et al. Reconciling opposing Walker circulation trends in observations and model projections[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2019-01-01,9(5):405-+
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