gchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/035002
Title:
How will climate change affect wildland fire severity in the western US?
Author: Sean A Parks; Carol Miller; John T Abatzoglou; Lisa M Holsinger; Marc-André Parisien; Solomon Z Dobrowski
Source Publication: Environmental Research Letters
ISSN: 1748-9326
Indexed By: SCI-E ; EI
Publishing Year: 2016
Date Published: 2016-02-23
Volume: 11, Issue:3
Language: 英语
Subject in Chinese: 植被
Subject: VEGETATION
English Abstract:

Fire regime characteristics in North America are expected to change over the next several decades as a result of anthropogenic climate change. Although some fire regime characteristics (e.g., area burned and fire season length) are relatively well-studied in the context of a changing climate, fire severity has received less attention. In this study, we used observed data from 1984 to 2012 for the western United States (US) to build a statistical model of fire severity as a function of climate. We then applied this model to several (n = 20) climate change projections representing mid-century (2040–2069) conditions under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Model predictions suggest widespread reduction in fire severity for large portions of the western US. However, our model implicitly incorporates climate-induced changes in vegetation type, fuel load, and fire frequency. As such, our predictions are best interpreted as a potential reduction in fire severity, a potential that may not be realized due human-induced disequilibrium between plant communities and climate. Consequently, to realize the reductions in fire severity predicted in this study, land managers in the western US could facilitate the transition of plant communities towards a state of equilibrium with the emerging climate through means such as active restoration treatments (e.g., mechanical thinning and prescribed fire) and passive restoration strategies like managed natural fire (under suitable weather conditions). Resisting changes in vegetation composition and fuel load via activities such as aggressive fire suppression will amplify disequilibrium conditions and will likely result in increased fire severity in future decades because fuel loads will increase as the climate warms and fire danger becomes more extreme. The results of our study provide insights to the pros and cons of resisting or facilitating change in vegetation composition and fuel load in the context of a changing climate.

Related Link: http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/035002
Citation statistics:
Document Type: 期刊论文
Identifier: http://119.78.100.177/globalchange/handle/2HF3EXSE/13717
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候减缓与适应

Files in This Item:
File Name/ File Size Content Type Version Access License
Parks_2016_Environ._Res._Lett._11_035002.pdf(2432KB)期刊论文作者接受稿开放获取View 联系获取全文

Affiliation: Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute, Rocky Mountain Research Station, USDA Forest Service, 790 East Beckwith Ave., Missoula, MT 59801, USA;Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute, Rocky Mountain Research Station, USDA Forest Service, 790 East Beckwith Ave., Missoula, MT 59801, USA;Department of Geography, University of Idaho, 875 Perimeter Dr MS3021, Moscow, ID 83844, USA;Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute, Rocky Mountain Research Station, USDA Forest Service, 790 East Beckwith Ave., Missoula, MT 59801, USA;Northern Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, 5320 122nd Street, Edmonton, Alberta T5H 3S5, Canada;Department of Forest Management, College of Forestry and Conservation, University of Montana, 32 Campus Drive, Missoula, MT 59812, USA

Recommended Citation:
Sean A Parks,Carol Miller,John T Abatzoglou,et al. How will climate change affect wildland fire severity in the western US?[J]. Environmental Research Letters,2016-01-01,11(3)
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Sean A Parks]'s Articles
[Carol Miller]'s Articles
[John T Abatzoglou]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Sean A Parks]'s Articles
[Carol Miller]'s Articles
[John T Abatzoglou]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Sean A Parks]‘s Articles
[Carol Miller]‘s Articles
[John T Abatzoglou]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
文件名: Parks_2016_Environ._Res._Lett._11_035002.pdf
格式: Adobe PDF
此文件暂不支持浏览
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.