globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1029/2018MS001597
WOS记录号: WOS:000477717700013
论文题名:
Applying Machine Learning to Improve Simulations of a Chaotic Dynamical System Using Empirical Error Correction
作者: Watson, Peter A. G.
通讯作者: Watson, Peter A. G.
刊名: JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS
EISSN: 1942-2466
出版年: 2019
卷: 11, 期:5, 页码:1402-1417
语种: 英语
英文关键词: modeling ; machine learning ; neural network ; Lorenz ' ; 96
WOS关键词: CONVECTION PARAMETERIZATION ; CLIMATE MODELS ; PREDICTION ; RADIATION ; ACCURATE ; WEATHER ; PHYSICS
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

Dynamical weather and climate prediction models underpin many studies of the Earth system and hold the promise of being able to make robust projections of future climate change based on physical laws. However, simulations from these models still show many differences compared with observations. Machine learning has been applied to solve certain prediction problems with great success, and recently, it has been proposed that this could replace the role of physically-derived dynamical weather and climate models to give better quality simulations. Here, instead, a framework using machine learning together with physically-derived models is tested, in which it is learnt how to correct the errors of the latter from time step to time step. This maintains the physical understanding built into the models, while allowing performance improvements, and also requires much simpler algorithms and less training data. This is tested in the context of simulating the chaotic Lorenz '96 system, and it is shown that the approach yields models that are stable and that give both improved skill in initialized predictions and better long-term climate statistics. Improvements in long-term statistics are smaller than for single time step tendencies, however, indicating that it would be valuable to develop methods that target improvements on longer time scales. Future strategies for the development of this approach and possible applications to making progress on important scientific problems are discussed.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/137306
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: Univ Oxford, Atmospher Ocean & Planetary Phys, Oxford, England

Recommended Citation:
Watson, Peter A. G.. Applying Machine Learning to Improve Simulations of a Chaotic Dynamical System Using Empirical Error Correction[J]. JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS,2019-01-01,11(5):1402-1417
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