globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/048002
论文题名:
Consensus on consensus: a synthesis of consensus estimates on human-caused global warming
作者: John Cook; Naomi Oreskes; Peter T Doran; William R L Anderegg; Bart Verheggen; Ed W Maibach; J Stuart Carlton; Stephan Lewandowsky; Andrew G Skuce; Sarah A Green; Dana Nuccitelli; Peter Jacobs; Mark Richardson; Bärbel Winkler; Rob Painting; Ken Rice
刊名: Environmental Research Letters
ISSN: 1748-9326
出版年: 2016
发表日期: 2016-04-13
卷: 11, 期:4
语种: 英语
英文摘要:

The consensus that humans are causing recent global warming is shared by 90%–100% of publishing climate scientists according to six independent studies by co-authors of this paper. Those results are consistent with the 97% consensus reported by Cook et al (Environ. Res. Lett. 8 024024) based on 11 944 abstracts of research papers, of which 4014 took a position on the cause of recent global warming. A survey of authors of those papers (N = 2412 papers) also supported a 97% consensus. Tol (2016 Environ. Res. Lett. 11 048001) comes to a different conclusion using results from surveys of non-experts such as economic geologists and a self-selected group of those who reject the consensus. We demonstrate that this outcome is not unexpected because the level of consensus correlates with expertise in climate science. At one point, Tol also reduces the apparent consensus by assuming that abstracts that do not explicitly state the cause of global warming ('no position') represent non-endorsement, an approach that if applied elsewhere would reject consensus on well-established theories such as plate tectonics. We examine the available studies and conclude that the finding of 97% consensus in published climate research is robust and consistent with other surveys of climate scientists and peer-reviewed studies.

URL: http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/048002
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/13768
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: Global Change Institute, University of Queensland, Australia;School of Psychology, University of Western Australia, Australia;Skeptical Science, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia;Department of the History of Science, Harvard University, USA;Geology and Geophysics, Louisiana State University, USA;Department of Biology, University of Utah, USA;Princeton Environmental Institute, Princeton University, USA;Amsterdam University College, The Netherlands;Department of Environmental Science and Policy, George Mason University, USA;Texas Sea Grant College Program, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX USA;School of Psychology, University of Western Australia, Australia;University of Bristol, UK;Skeptical Science, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia;Salt Spring Consulting Ltd, Salt Spring Island, BC, Canada;Department of Chemistry, Michigan Technological University, USA;Skeptical Science, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia;Department of Environmental Science and Policy, George Mason University, USA;University of Reading, Reading, UK, now at Jet Propulsion Lab, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, USA;Skeptical Science, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia;Skeptical Science, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia;Institute for Astronomy, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK

Recommended Citation:
John Cook,Naomi Oreskes,Peter T Doran,et al. Consensus on consensus: a synthesis of consensus estimates on human-caused global warming[J]. Environmental Research Letters,2016-01-01,11(4)
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