The global population at risk from mosquito-borne diseases-including dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya and Zika-is expanding in concert with changes in the distribution of two key vectors: Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. The distribution of these species is largely driven by both human movement and the presence of suitable climate. Using statistical mapping techniques, we show that human movement patterns explain the spread of both species in Europe and the United States following their introduction. We find that the spread of Ae. aegypti is characterized by long distance importations, while Ae. albopictus has expanded more along the fringes of its distribution. We describe these processes and predict the future distributions of both species in response to accelerating urbanization, connectivity and climate change. Global surveillance and control efforts that aim to mitigate the spread of chikungunya, dengue, yellow fever and Zika viruses must consider the so far unabated spread of these mosquitos. Our maps and predictions offer an opportunity to strategically target surveillance and control programmes and thereby augment efforts to reduce arbovirus burden in human populations globally.
1.Univ Oxford, Dept Zool, Oxford, England 2.Harvard Univ, Harvard Med Sch, Boston, MA 02115 USA 3.Boston Childrens Hosp, Boston, MA 02115 USA 4.Univ Washington, Inst Hlth Metr & Evaluat, Seattle, WA 98195 USA 5.London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Ctr Math Modelling Infect Dis, London, England 6.London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Infect Dis Epidemiol, London, England 7.Univ Oxford, Sch Geog & Environm, Oxford, England 8.Univ Oxford, Oxford Sch Global & Area Studies, Oxford, England 9.Univ Libre Bruxelles, Spatial Epidemiol Lab SpELL, Brussels, Belgium 10.Fonds Natl Rech Sci, Brussels, Belgium 11.Harvard Univ, Dept Stat, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA 12.RTI Int, Washington, DC USA 13.Univ Nottingham, Sch Med, Epidemiol & Publ Hlth Div, Nottingham, England 14.Univ Notre Dame, Dept Biol Sci, Notre Dame, IN 46556 USA 15.Univ Notre Dame, Eck Inst Global Hlth, Notre Dame, IN 46556 USA 16.Fudan Univ, Sch Hlth, Key Lab Publ Hlth Safety, Minist Educ, Shanghai, Peoples R China 17.Univ Southampton, Dept Geog & Environm, Southampton, Hants, England 18.Flowminder Fdn, Stockholm, Sweden 19.Cent S Univ, Sch Business, Changsha, Hunan, Peoples R China 20.Natl Univ Def Technol, Coll Syst Engn, Changsha, Hunan, Peoples R China 21.Southwestern Univ Finance & Econ, Sch Business Adm, Chengdu, Sichuan, Peoples R China 22.Waen Associates Ltd, Dolgellau, Gwynedd, Wales 23.PAHO, Washington, DC USA 24.Minist Hlth, Natl Dengue Control Program, Brasilia, DF, Brazil 25.European Ctr Dis Prevent & Control, Stockholm, Sweden 26.Inst Trop Med, Antwerp, Belgium 27.Avia GIS, Zoersel, Belgium 28.Francis Schaffner Consultancy, Riehen, Switzerland 29.Colorado State Univ, Dept Microbiol Immunol & Pathol, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA 30.Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Computat Social Sci, Zurich, Switzerland 31.Karolinska Inst, Dept Publ Hlth Sci, Stockholm, Sweden 32.Stockholm Sch Econ, Stockholm, Sweden 33.Inst Pasteur, Insect Virus Interact Unit, UMR2000, CNRS, Paris, France 34.Inst Pasteur, Math Modelling Infect Dis Unit, UMR2000, CNRS, Paris, France 35.Univ Namur, Dept Geog, Namur, Belgium 36.Univ Calif Davis, Dept Entomol & Nematol, Davis, CA 95616 USA 37.Chinese Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Natl Inst Communicable Dis Control & Prevent, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Diag & Treatment Infect Di, State Key Lab Infect Dis Prevent & Control, Beijing, Peoples R China 38.Shandong Univ, Climate Change & Hlth Ctr, Sch Publ Hlth, Jinan, Shandong, Peoples R China 39.WHO Collaborating Ctr Vector Surveillance & Manag, Beijing, Peoples R China 40.Chongqing Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Chongqing, Peoples R China 41.Univ Oxford, Dept Zool, ERGO, Oxford, England 42.Univ Melbourne, Sch BioSci, Parkville, Vic, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Kraemer, Moritz U. G.,Reiner, Robert C., Jr.,Brady, Oliverj,et al. Past and future spread of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus[J]. NATURE MICROBIOLOGY,2019-01-01,4(5):854-863