全球变化知识资源中心

Coastal communities living in the low delta areas of Vietnam are increasingly vulnerable to tropical storms and related natural hazards of global climate change. Particularly in the Red River Delta Biosphere Reserve (RRDBR), farmers change the crop structure and diversify agricultural systems to adapt to the changing climate. The paper deals with a quantitative approach combined with behavior theories and surveyed data to analyze farmers' intention to climate change adaptation in agriculture. Based on the Protection Motivation Theory (PMT), seven constructs are developed to a questionnaire surveying 526 local farmers: risk perception, belief, habit, maladaptation, subjective norm, adaptation assessment, and adaptation intention. Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) is implemented to extract eight factors and to quantify the relationship between protective behavior factors with the adaptation intention of the surveyed farmers. Two bootstrap samples of sizes 800 and 1200 are generated to estimate the coefficients and standard errors. The SEM result suggests a regional and three local structural models for climate change adaptation intention of farmers living in the RRDBR. Farmers show a higher adaptation intention when they perceive higher climate risks threatening their physical health, finances, production, social relationships, and psychology. In contrast, farmers are less likely to intend to adapt when they are subject to wishful thinking, deny the climate risks, or believe in fatalism.