globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1080/13669877.2019.1604564
WOS记录号: WOS:000470618400001
论文题名:
Causality, the critical but often ignored component guiding us through a world of uncertainties in risk assessment
作者: Neil, Martin1; Fenton, Norman1; Osman, Magda2; Lagnado, David3
通讯作者: Neil, Martin
刊名: JOURNAL OF RISK RESEARCH
ISSN: 1366-9877
EISSN: 1466-4461
出版年: 2019
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Risk ; causality ; Bayesian ; regulation
WOS关键词: FRAMEWORK
WOS学科分类: Social Sciences, Interdisciplinary
WOS研究方向: Social Sciences - Other Topics
英文摘要:

The idea of uncertainty analyses, which typically involves quantification, is to protect practitioners and consumers from drawing unsubstantiated conclusions from scientific assessments of risk. The importance of causal modelling in this process - along with the inference methods associated with such modelling - is now increasingly widely recognized; yet organizations responsible for policy on uncertainty and risk in critical domains have generally ignored this body of work. We use recent guidance from the European Food Standards Authority on uncertainty analyses and the communication surrounding them and guidance on uncertainties by the intergovernmental panel on climate change to illustrate the conceptual tangles that come from failing to acknowledge explicitly the necessity of causal reasoning in understanding uncertainties. We conclude that both organizations present guidance documents that specify how uncertainty can be quantified without any explicit reference to a principled framework or methodological approach that can quantify, and, from this, communicate uncertainties.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/138205
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作者单位: 1.Queen Mary Univ London, Sch Elect Engn & Comp Sci, Mile End Rd, London E1 4NS, England
2.Queen Mary Univ London, Sch Biol & Chem Sci, Biol & Expt Psychol, London, England
3.UCL, Dept Expt Psychol, London, England

Recommended Citation:
Neil, Martin,Fenton, Norman,Osman, Magda,et al. Causality, the critical but often ignored component guiding us through a world of uncertainties in risk assessment[J]. JOURNAL OF RISK RESEARCH,2019-01-01
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