globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/8/084012
论文题名:
High-income does not protect against hurricane losses
作者: Tobias Geiger; Katja Frieler; Anders Levermann
刊名: Environmental Research Letters
ISSN: 1748-9326
出版年: 2016
发表日期: 2016-08-16
卷: 11, 期:8
语种: 英语
英文摘要:

Damage due to tropical cyclones accounts for more than 50% of all meteorologically-induced economic losses worldwide. Their nominal impact is projected to increase substantially as the exposed population grows, per capita income increases, and anthropogenic climate change manifests. So far, historical losses due to tropical cyclones have been found to increase less than linearly with a nation's affected gross domestic product (GDP). Here we show that for the United States this scaling is caused by a sub-linear increase with affected population while relative losses scale super-linearly with per capita income. The finding is robust across a multitude of empirically derived damage models that link the storm's wind speed, exposed population, and per capita GDP to reported losses. The separation of both socio-economic predictors strongly affects the projection of potential future hurricane losses. Separating the effects of growth in population and per-capita income, per hurricane losses with respect to national GDP are projected to triple by the end of the century under unmitigated climate change, while they are estimated to decrease slightly without the separation.

URL: http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/8/084012
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/13881
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegraphenberg A56, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany;Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegraphenberg A56, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany;Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegraphenberg A56, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany;LDEO, Columbia University, 61 Route 9w, Palisades, NY 10964, USA;Institute of Physics, Potsdam University, Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 24/25, D-14476 Potsdam, Germany

Recommended Citation:
Tobias Geiger,Katja Frieler,Anders Levermann. High-income does not protect against hurricane losses[J]. Environmental Research Letters,2016-01-01,11(8)
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