globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab072e
WOS记录号: WOS:000470888000001
论文题名:
Increased population exposure to extreme droughts in China due to 0.5 degrees C of additional warming
作者: Chen, Huopo1,2; Sun, Jianqi1,2
通讯作者: Chen, Huopo
刊名: ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN: 1748-9326
出版年: 2019
卷: 14, 期:6
语种: 英语
英文关键词: drought ; population exposure ; 1.5 degrees C ; 2.0 degrees C ; China
WOS关键词: CLIMATE-CHANGE ; 1.5-DEGREES-C
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

Drought, one of the major natural disasters in China, generally causes the largest socioeconomic loss each year and also has severe human health impacts. It is thus crucial to assess the changes in droughts in this region under different climate change scenarios. This study examines the impacts of stabilized 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C warming at the end of the 21st century on drought events in China by using a set of coupled Earth system model low-warming simulations. If warming is limited to 1.5 degrees C or 2.0 degrees C, these simulations suggest that droughts will become more frequent and more intense compared to the present day, particularly over the northern regions of China. In comparison to the 1.5 degrees C warmer future, the 0.5 degrees C additional warming in the 2.0 degrees C warmer future will account for approximately 9% of the increase in the drought occurrence in China and approximately 8% of extreme droughts, while there are relatively small responses for moderate and severe droughts. Consequently, the additional warming would lead to significantly higher drought impacts, and the population exposure to the extreme droughts is projected to increase by approximately 17%, although the exposure to moderate droughts decreases. Therefore, our results suggest that the mitigation of anthropogenic warming by 0.5 degrees C to achieve the 1.5 degrees C warmer climate instead of the 2.0 degrees C climate may have benefits for future drought risks and impacts.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/139031
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作者单位: 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Nansen Zhu Int Res Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China
2.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China

Recommended Citation:
Chen, Huopo,Sun, Jianqi. Increased population exposure to extreme droughts in China due to 0.5 degrees C of additional warming[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019-01-01,14(6)
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