globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1007/s10113-019-01483-x
WOS记录号: WOS:000468851600021
论文题名:
The response of English yew (Taxus baccata L.) to climate change in the Caspian Hyrcanian Mixed Forest ecoregion
作者: Alavi, Seyed Jalil1; Ahmadi, Kourosh1; Hosseini, Seyed Mohsen1; Tabari, Masoud1; Nouri, Zahra2
通讯作者: Alavi, Seyed Jalil
刊名: REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE
ISSN: 1436-3798
EISSN: 1436-378X
出版年: 2019
卷: 19, 期:5, 页码:1495-1506
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Habitats suitability ; Species distribution models ; Rare species ; English yew ; Bioclimatic variables
WOS关键词: SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELS ; POTENTIAL DISTRIBUTION ; HABITAT DISTRIBUTION ; CONSERVATION STATUS ; GENETIC DIVERSITY ; RANGE ; UNCERTAINTY ; FUTURE ; GROWTH ; SHIFT
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology
英文摘要:

The Hyrcanian climate in the northern parts of Iran has warmed over the past 50years, but the impacts on plant species are unknown. As the longest-lived tree in the Hyrcanian forest, English yew, Taxus baccata L., is a rare and endangered species in the forests along the Iranian coasts of the Caspian Sea, which is likely affected by climate change. This paper explores the current and future distribution of this species, using four species distribution models. In order to project the effect of climate change on the distribution of English yew by 2050 and 2070, output from the HadGEM2-ES climate model was used for two RCPs scenarios (2.6 and 8.5). The results showed a good accuracy of all the models for the distribution of this species with a mean area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) of 0.92. Using ensemble forecasting as an algorithm for reducing the uncertainty in species distribution modeling shows that the suitable habitats for this species is about 6000km(2) for the current climate conditions in the study area. Range size analysis indicates that in 2050, in the most optimistic scenario (RCP 2.6), only 17% of the habitats will retain their suitability, while in the most pessimistic scenario (RCP 8.5), this amount will decrease to 2%. In 2070, in the most optimistic scenario, only 10% of the currently suitable habitats will retain their suitability, while in the RCP 8.5, no stable suitable habitats will be left. It is strongly recommended that the impacts of climate change on English yew should be considered in the management decisions and conservation plans in the Hyrcanian forests.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/139050
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: 1.Tarbiat Modares Univ, Fac Nat Resources & Marine Sci, Dept Forestry, Tehran, Iran
2.Univ Tehran, Fac Nat Resources, Dept Forestry, Tehran, Iran

Recommended Citation:
Alavi, Seyed Jalil,Ahmadi, Kourosh,Hosseini, Seyed Mohsen,et al. The response of English yew (Taxus baccata L.) to climate change in the Caspian Hyrcanian Mixed Forest ecoregion[J]. REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE,2019-01-01,19(5):1495-1506
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