| 英文摘要: | Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is considered a potential source of net negative carbon emissions and, if deployed at sufficient scale, could help reduce carbon dioxide emissions and concentrations. However, the viability and economic consequences of large-scale BECCS deployment are not fully understood. We use the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) integrated assessment model to explore the potential global and regional economic impacts of BECCS. As a negative-emissions technology, BECCS would entail a net subsidy in a policy environment in which carbon emissions are taxed. We show that by mid-century, in a world committed to limiting climate change to 2 °C, carbon tax revenues have peaked and are rapidly approaching the point where climate mitigation is a net burden on general tax revenues. Assuming that the required policy instruments are available to support BECCS deployment, we consider its effects on global trade patterns of fossil fuels, biomass, and agricultural products. We find that in a world committed to limiting climate change to 2 °C, the absence of CCS harms fossil-fuel exporting regions, while the presence of CCS, and BECCS in particular, allows greater continued use and export of fossil fuels. We also explore the relationship between carbon prices, food-crop prices and use of BECCS. We show that the carbon price and biomass and food crop prices are directly related. We also show that BECCS reduces the upward pressure on food crop prices by lowering carbon prices and lowering the total biomass demand in climate change mitigation scenarios. All of this notwithstanding, many challenges, both technical and institutional, remain to be addressed before BECCS can be deployed at scale. |