globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.3390/w11061296
WOS记录号: WOS:000475346300184
论文题名:
Impacts of Spatial Heterogeneity and Temporal Non-Stationarity on Intensity-Duration-Frequency Estimates-A Case Study in a Mountainous California-Nevada Watershed
作者: Ren, Huiying1; Hou, Z. Jason1; Wigmosta, Mark1; Liu, Ying2; Leung, L. Ruby2
通讯作者: Ren, Huiying
刊名: WATER
ISSN: 2073-4441
出版年: 2019
卷: 11, 期:6
语种: 英语
英文关键词: IDF ; heterogeneity ; non-stationarity ; extreme precipitation ; high-resolution and bias-corrected regional simulations ; climate change
WOS关键词: EXTREME RAINFALL ; DIFFERENTIAL EVOLUTION ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; IDF CURVES ; PRECIPITATION ; TRENDS ; STATISTICS ; SIMULATION ; MODEL ; STATE
WOS学科分类: Water Resources
WOS研究方向: Water Resources
英文摘要:

Changes in extreme precipitation events may require revisions of civil engineering standards to prevent water infrastructures from performing below the designated guidelines. Climate change may invalidate the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) computation that is based on the assumption of data stationarity. Efforts in evaluating non-stationarity in the annual maxima series are inadequate, mostly due to the lack of long data records and convenient methods for detecting trends in the higher moments. In this study, using downscaled high resolution climate simulations of the historical and future periods under different carbon emission scenarios, we tested two solutions to obtain reliable IDFs under non-stationarity: (1) identify quasi-stationary time windows from the time series of interest to compute the IDF curves using data for the corresponding time windows; (2) introduce a parameter representing the trend in the means of the extreme value distributions. Focusing on a mountainous site, the Walker Watershed, the spatial heterogeneity and variability of IDFs or extremes are evaluated, particularly in terms of the terrain and elevation impacts. We compared observations-based IDFs that use the stationarity assumption with the two approaches that consider non-stationarity. The IDFs directly estimated based on the traditional stationarity assumption may underestimate the 100-year 24-h events by 10% to 60% towards the end of the century at most grids, resulting in significant under-designing of the engineering infrastructure at the study site. Strong spatial heterogeneity and variability in the IDF estimates suggest a preference for using high resolution simulation data for the reliable estimation of exceedance probability over data from sparsely distributed weather stations. Discrepancies among the three IDFs analyses due to non-stationarity are comparable to the spatial variability of the IDFs, underscoring a need to use an ensemble of non-stationary approaches to achieve unbiased and comprehensive IDF estimates.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/139304
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: 1.Pacific Northwest Natl Lab, Hydrol, Richland, WA 99354 USA
2.Pacific Northwest Natl Lab, Earth Syst Anal & Model, Richland, WA 99354 USA

Recommended Citation:
Ren, Huiying,Hou, Z. Jason,Wigmosta, Mark,et al. Impacts of Spatial Heterogeneity and Temporal Non-Stationarity on Intensity-Duration-Frequency Estimates-A Case Study in a Mountainous California-Nevada Watershed[J]. WATER,2019-01-01,11(6)
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