globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/095007
论文题名:
Nitrogen use in the global food system: past trends and future trajectories of agronomic performance, pollution, trade, and dietary demand
作者: Luis Lassaletta; Gilles Billen; Josette Garnier; Lex Bouwman; Eduardo Velazquez; Nathaniel D Mueller; James S Gerber
刊名: Environmental Research Letters
ISSN: 1748-9326
出版年: 2016
发表日期: 2016-09-14
卷: 11, 期:9
语种: 英语
英文摘要:

Nitrogen (N) limits crop and grass production, and it is an essential component of dietary proteins. However, N is mobile in the soil-plant system and can be lost to the environment. Estimates of N flows provide a critical tool for understanding and improving the sustainability and equity of the global food system. This letter describes an integrated analysis of changes in N in human diets, N use efficiency (NUE) of cropping and livestock systems, N pollution and N in traded food and feed products for 12 world regions for the period 1960–2050. The largest absolute change in consumption of animal proteins during the period 1960–2009 is seen in China, while the largest share of animal protein per capita is currently observed in North America, Europe and Oceania. Due to the substantial growth of the livestock sector, about three quarters of contemporary global crop production (expressed in protein and including fodder crops and bioenergy byproducts) is allocated to livestock. Trends and levels of NUE and N surpluses in crop production are also diverse, as some regions show soil N depletion (developing regions, e.g. Africa), improving efficiency (industrialized regions, e.g. USA and Europe) and excessive N use (e.g. China, India). Global trade between the 12 regions has increased by a factor of 7.5 for vegetable proteins and by a factor of 10 for animal proteins. The scenarios for 2050 demonstrate that it would be possible to feed the global population in 2050 with moderate animal protein consumption but with much less N pollution, and less international trade than today. In such a scenario, optimal allocation of N inputs among regions to maximize NUE would further decrease pollution, but would require increased levels of N trade comparable to those in a BAU scenario.

URL: http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/095007
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/13931
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, 3720 AH Bilthoven, The Netherlands;CNRS/UPMC, UMR Metis, 4 Place Jussieu, F-75005 Paris, France;CNRS/UPMC, UMR Metis, 4 Place Jussieu, F-75005 Paris, France;CNRS/UPMC, UMR Metis, 4 Place Jussieu, F-75005 Paris, France;PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, 3720 AH Bilthoven, The Netherlands;Department of Earth Sciences—Geochemistry, Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, PO Box 80021, 3508 TA Utrecht, The Netherlands;Department of Ecological Modelling Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ Permoserstr, D-15 04318 Leipzig, Germany;Departamento de Biología, Centro Universitario de Coyhaique, Universidad de Magallanes, José Miguel Carrera 485, Coyhaique, Chile;Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, 20 Oxford St, Cambridge MA 02138, USA;Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University 16 Divinity Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA;Institute on the Environment (IonE), University of Minnesota, 325 LES, 1954 Buford Avenue, St Paul, MN 55108, USA

Recommended Citation:
Luis Lassaletta,Gilles Billen,Josette Garnier,et al. Nitrogen use in the global food system: past trends and future trajectories of agronomic performance, pollution, trade, and dietary demand[J]. Environmental Research Letters,2016-01-01,11(9)
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