While a growing proportion of global food consumption is obtained through international trade, there is an ongoing debate on whether this increased reliance on trade benefits or hinders food security, and specifically, the ability of global food systems to absorb shocks due to local or regional losses of production. This paper introduces a model that simulates the short-term response to a food supply shock originating in a single country, which is partly absorbed through decreases in domestic reserves and consumption, and partly transmitted through the adjustment of trade flows. By applying the model to publicly-available data for the cereals commodity group over a 17 year period, we find that differential outcomes of supply shocks simulated through this time period are driven not only by the intensification of trade, but as importantly by changes in the distribution of reserves. Our analysis also identifies countries where trade dependency may accentuate the risk of food shortages from foreign production shocks; such risk could be reduced by increasing domestic reserves or importing food from a diversity of suppliers that possess their own reserves. This simulation-based model provides a framework to study the short-term, nonlinear and out-of-equilibrium response of trade networks to supply shocks, and could be applied to specific scenarios of environmental or economic perturbations.
National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center (SESYNC), Annapolis, MD 21401, USA;Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22904, USA;National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center (SESYNC), Annapolis, MD 21401, USA;International Centre for Water Resources and Global Change (UNESCO), German Federal Institute of Hydrology, PO Box 200253, D-56002 Koblenz, Germany;Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22904, USA;Water and Development Research Group (WDRG), Aalto University, FI-00076 Aalto, Finland;National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center (SESYNC), Annapolis, MD 21401, USA;Water and Development Research Group (WDRG), Aalto University, FI-00076 Aalto, Finland;Columbia University Center for Climate Systems Research, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10025, USA;Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22904, USA;Department of Hydraulics, Roadways, Environmental and Surveying Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, Milan I-20133, Italy;Department of Ecology and Environmental Science, Umeå University, SE-901 87 Ume, Sweden;Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Padova, I-35131 Padova, Italy;Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics, London WC2A 2AE, UK;National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center (SESYNC), Annapolis, MD 21401, USA;Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22904, USA
Recommended Citation:
Philippe Marchand,Joel A Carr,Jampel Dell’Angelo,et al. Reserves and trade jointly determine exposure to food supply shocks[J]. Environmental Research Letters,2016-01-01,11(9)