globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1111/ecog.04264
WOS记录号: WOS:000472122200005
论文题名:
A macroecological approach to evolutionary rescue and adaptation to climate change
作者: Diniz-Filho, Jose Alexandre F.1; Souza, Kelly S.2; Bini, Luis M.1; Loyola, Rafael1; Dobrovolski, Ricardo3; Rodrigues, Joao Fabricio M.4; Lima-Ribeiro, Matheus de S.5; Terribile, Levi C.5; Rangel, Thiago F.1; Bione, Igor6; Freitas, Roniel4; Machado, Ibere F.7; Rocha, Taina4; Lorini, Maria L.8; Vale, Mariana M.9,10; Navas, Carlos A.11; Maciel, Natan M.1; Villalobos, Fabricio12; Olalla-Tarraga, Miguel A.13; Gouveia, Sidney14
通讯作者: Diniz-Filho, Jose Alexandre F.
刊名: ECOGRAPHY
ISSN: 0906-7590
EISSN: 1600-0587
出版年: 2019
卷: 42, 期:6, 页码:1124-1141
语种: 英语
英文关键词: adaptation ; anurans ; climate change ; ecological niche models ; eco-evolutionary models ; geographical ranges ; Grinnelian niche ; Rhinella ; trailing edges
WOS关键词: SPECIES RANGE SHIFTS ; NICHE CONSERVATISM ; RESPONSES ; BIODIVERSITY ; UNCERTAINTIES ; VULNERABILITY ; EXTINCTION ; IMPACTS ; MODELS ; FUTURE
WOS学科分类: Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology
WOS研究方向: Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
英文摘要:

Despite the widespread use of ecological niche models (ENMs) for predicting the responses of species to climate change, these models do not explicitly incorporate any population-level mechanism. On the other hand, mechanistic models adding population processes (e.g. biotic interactions, dispersal and adaptive potential to abiotic conditions) are much more complex and difficult to parameterize, especially if the goal is to predict range shifts for many species simultaneously. In particular, the adaptive potential (based on genetic adaptations, phenotypic plasticity and behavioral adjustments for physiological responses) of local populations has been a less studied mechanism affecting species' responses to climatic change so far. Here, we discuss and apply an alternative macroecological framework to evaluate the potential role of evolutionary rescue under climate change based on ENMs. We begin by reviewing eco-evolutionary models that evaluate the maximum sustainable evolutionary rate under a scenario of environmental change, showing how they can be used to understand the impact of temperature change on a Neotropical anuran species, the Schneider's toad Rhinella diptycha. Then we show how to evaluate spatial patterns of species' geographic range shift using such models, by estimating evolutionary rates at the trailing edge of species distribution estimated by ENMs and by recalculating the relative amount of total range loss under climate change. We show how different models can reduce the expected range loss predicted for the studied species by potential ecophysiological adaptations in some regions of the trailing edge predicted by ENMs. For general applications, we believe that parameters for large numbers of species and populations can be obtained from macroecological generalizations (e.g. allometric equations and ecogeographical rules), so our framework coupling ENMs with eco-evolutionary models can be applied to achieve a more accurate picture of potential impacts from climate change and other threats to biodiversity.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/139463
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: 1.Univ Fed Goias, Dept Ecol, ICB, Goiania, Go, Brazil
2.Univ Fed Goias, Grad Program Genet & Mol Biol, ICB, Goiania, Go, Brazil
3.Univ Fed Bahia, Inst Biol, Salvador, BA, Brazil
4.Univ Fed Goias, INCT Ecol Evolucao & Conservacao Biodiversidade, Programa DTI, CNPq, Goiania, Go, Brazil
5.UFG, Inst Biociencias, Reg Jatai, Jatai, Go, Brazil
6.ICB, Grad Program Ecol & Evolut, Goiania, Go, Brazil
7.CNPq, Inst Biotata & PDJ, Rio De Janeiro, Brazil
8.Univ Fed Estado Rio de Janeiro, Inst Biociencias, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
9.Univ Fed Rio de Janeiro, Dept Ecol, Lab Int Cambio Global LincGlobal, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
10.MCTIC, Rede Brasileira Pesquisas Mudancas Climat Globais, Rio De Janeiro, Brazil
11.Univ Sao Paulo, Inst Biociencias, Sao Paulo, Brazil
12.Inst Ecol AC, Red Biol Evolut, Xalapa, Veracruz, Mexico
13.Rey Juan Carlos Univ, Biodivers & Macroecol Lab, Dept Biol & Geol Phys & Inorgan Chem, Madrid, Spain
14.Univ Fed Sergipe, Dept Ecol, CCBS, Aracaju, Sergipe, Brazil

Recommended Citation:
Diniz-Filho, Jose Alexandre F.,Souza, Kelly S.,Bini, Luis M.,et al. A macroecological approach to evolutionary rescue and adaptation to climate change[J]. ECOGRAPHY,2019-01-01,42(6):1124-1141
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