The IUCN Red List has downgraded several species from "endangered" to "vulnerable" that still have largely unknown extinction risks. We consider one of those downgraded species, the giant panda, a bamboo specialist. Massive bamboo flowering could be a natural disaster for giant pandas. Using scenario analysis, we explored possible impacts of the next bamboo flowering in the Qinling and Minshan Mountains that are home to most giant pandas. Our results showed that the Qinling Mountains could experience large-scale bamboo flowering leading to a high risk of widespread food shortages for the giant pandas by 2020. The Minshan Mountains could similarly experience a large-scale bamboo flowering with a high risk for giant pandas between 2020 and 2030 without suitable alternative habitat in the surrounding areas. These scenarios highlight thus-far unforeseen dangers of conserving giant pandas in a fragmented habitat. We recommend advance measures to protect giant panda from severe population crashes when flowering happens. This study also suggests the need to anticipate and manage long-term risks to other downgraded species.
1.Tsinghua Univ, Sch Environm, State Key Joint Lab Environm Simulat & Pollut Con, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China 2.WWF Beijing Off, 22 Baiwangzhuang St, Beijing 100035, Peoples R China 3.Michigan State Univ, Dept Fisheries & Wildlife, Ctr Syst Integrat & Sustainabil, E Lansing, MI 48823 USA 4.Duke Univ, Nicholas Sch Environm, Box 90328, Durham, NC 27708 USA 5.ETH, Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Dept Environm Syst Sci, ForDev Grp, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland 6.CIRAD, Res Unit Forests & Soc, F-34392 Montpellier, France 7.Smithsonian Conservat Biol Inst, Conservat Ecol Ctr, Front Royal, VA 22630 USA 8.China Agr Univ, Coll Resources & Environm Sci, Beijing Key Lab Biodivers & Organ Farming, Beijing 100193, Peoples R China 9.Univ Twente, Fac Geoinformat Sci & Earth Observat ITC, NL-7500 AE Enschede, Netherlands 10.Macquarie Univ, N Ryde, NSW 2109, Australia 11.Chinese Acad Sci, Shaanxi Inst Zool, 88 Xingqing St, Xian 710032, Shaanxi, Peoples R China 12.Chinese Acad Forestry, Inst Wetland Res, Beijing 100091, Peoples R China 13.Dept Shaanxi Forest Adm, Wildlife Protect Stn, 233 Xiguanzheng St, Xian 710082, Shaanxi, Peoples R China 14.Foping Nat Reserve, Xian 723400, Shaanxi, Peoples R China 15.Guanyinshan Nat Reserve, Xian 723400, Shaanxi, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation:
Tian, Zhaoxue,Liu, Xuehua,Fan, Zhiyong,et al. The next widespread bamboo flowering poses a massive risk to the giant panda[J]. BIOLOGICAL CONSERVATION,2019-01-01,234:180-187