globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.12463
WOS记录号: WOS:000467260300005
论文题名:
Calculation of nonstationary flood return period considering historical extraordinary flood events
作者: Yang, L.1; Li, J.1; Sun, H.1; Guo, Y.1; Engel, B. A.2
通讯作者: Li, J.
刊名: JOURNAL OF FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT
ISSN: 1753-318X
出版年: 2019
卷: 12, 期:2
语种: 英语
英文关键词: ARX model ; historical extraordinary flood ; nonstationarity ; return period
WOS关键词: FREQUENCY-ANALYSIS ; TIME-SERIES ; CLIMATE ; STATIONARITY ; RISK ; PEAK
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Water Resources
英文摘要:

With climate change and intensification of human activities, the flood generation mechanism has been influenced which results in the nonstationarity of flood time series. In this study, in order to use historical flood data for flood frequency analysis, a nonlinear AutoRegressive exogenous (ARX) model was employed to complement missing flood data between the historical and recorded data. The key statistics of the complemented time series agreed well with those of the documented record. Using EWT (the expected waiting time until an exceedance) and ENE (the expected number of events in m year is one), nonstationary flood return periods were estimated by the complemented and recorded annual maximum flood peak series, respectively. The results showed that the return levels under nonstationarity are smaller than those under stationarity due to the construction of small hydraulic structures and many check dams after 1980s. This study implies that it is necessary to refine the flood return levels and the corresponding flood control measures for nonstationary flood series due to environmental change.


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被引频次[WOS]:7   [查看WOS记录]     [查看WOS中相关记录]
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/139687
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: 1.Tianjin Univ, State Key Lab Hydraul Engn Simulat & Safety, Tianjin 300072, Peoples R China
2.Purdue Univ, Dept Agr & Biol Engn, W Lafayette, IN 47907 USA

Recommended Citation:
Yang, L.,Li, J.,Sun, H.,et al. Calculation of nonstationary flood return period considering historical extraordinary flood events[J]. JOURNAL OF FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT,2019-01-01,12(2)
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