As countries take action to mitigate global warming, both by ratifying the UNFCCC Paris Agreement and enacting the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol to manage hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), it is important to consider the relative importance of the pertinent greenhouse gases and the distinct structure of their atmospheric impacts, and how the timing of potential greenhouse gas regulations would affect future changes in atmospheric temperature and ozone. HFCs should be explicitly considered in upcoming climate and ozone assessments, since chemistry-climate model simulations demonstrate that HFCs could contribute substantially to anthropogenic climate change by the mid-21st century, particularly in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere i.e., global average warming up to 0.19 K at 80 hPa. The HFC mitigation scenarios described in this study demonstrate the benefits of taking early action in avoiding future atmospheric change: more than 90% of the climate change impacts of HFCs can be avoided if emissions stop by 2030.
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA;Science Systems and Applications, Inc., Lanham, MD, USA;NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA;Science Systems and Applications, Inc., Lanham, MD, USA;NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA;NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA;GESTAR, Universities Space Research Association, Columbia, MD, USA;NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA;GESTAR, Universities Space Research Association, Columbia, MD, USA
Recommended Citation:
Margaret M Hurwitz,Eric L Fleming,Paul A Newman,et al. Early action on HFCs mitigates future atmospheric change[J]. Environmental Research Letters,2016-01-01,11(11)