全球变化知识资源中心

Analysis of climate on regional scales has acquired special importance due to its ability to influence distribution and production of natural resources and food crops. There has been a long felt need for doing the climate variability studies at smaller units like sub-division or district, as causes of climate change are more global but there impacts are felt locally. Central India is uniquely known for its rich forest wealth, good agricultural production and being home to varied bio diversity. Large number of tribal people in Central India derives their livelihood and nutrition security from forest resources. Climate change is likely to impact the distribution of these natural resources by altering their phenology and production. This study was aimed to study the variation in climatic parameters (temperature and precipitation) at district level for multi-decadal (45 years) period in Western (Hoshangabad) and Eastern (Mandla) Madhya Pradesh. Mann-Kendall Test and Sen's Slope Estimator was used for studying the direction and magnitude of change in the selected parameters.

Significant downward trends of Mean minimum temperature have been noticed at Mandla. Monsoon and post monsoon months are getting dried while pre-monsoon periods are becoming wetter. The rainfall records show a big shift in the total rains received at Hoshangabad. A westward shift in rainfall is seen in the state.