globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab23c1
WOS记录号: WOS:000475442000004
论文题名:
Quantifying human contributions to past and future ocean warming and thermosteric sea level rise
作者: Tokarska, Katarzyna B.1; Hegerl, Gabriele C.1; Schurer, Andrew P.1; Ribes, Aurelien2; Fasullo, John T.3
通讯作者: Tokarska, Katarzyna B.
刊名: ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN: 1748-9326
出版年: 2019
卷: 14, 期:7
语种: 英语
英文关键词: ocean warming ; thermosteric sea level ; detection and attribution ; climate change ; Earth system modelling
WOS关键词: CLIMATE-CHANGE ; GREENHOUSE-GAS ; PART I ; ATTRIBUTION ; DRIVEN ; HEAT
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

More than 90% of the Earth's energy imbalance is stored by the ocean. While previous studies have shown that changes in the ocean warming are detectable and distinct from internal variability of the climate system, an estimate of separate contributions by natural and individual anthropogenic forcings (such as greenhouse gases and aerosols) remains outstanding. Here we investigate anthropogenic and greenhouse-gas contributions to past ocean warming, and estimate their contributions to future sea level rise by the year 2100. By applying detection and attribution framework (regularized optimal fingerprinting), we show that ocean warming in the historical period is detectable and attributable to contributions from the aggregate anthropogenic forcing as well as greenhouse gas forcing alone. We also discuss the role of natural forcing on the ocean volume-averaged temperature and examine the impact of volcanic activity from the three main volcanoes occurring in the historical period 1955-2012. Our results suggest that estimated anthropogenic and greenhouse-gas contributions to ocean warming are consistent with observations, and observationally-constrained future thermosteric sea level rise projections support the central and lower part of the multi-model mean projection range distribution.


Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/141023
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: 1.Univ Edinburgh, Sch Geosci, Edinburgh, Midlothian, Scotland
2.CNRS, GAME, Meteo France, Bordeaux, France
3.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA

Recommended Citation:
Tokarska, Katarzyna B.,Hegerl, Gabriele C.,Schurer, Andrew P.,et al. Quantifying human contributions to past and future ocean warming and thermosteric sea level rise[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019-01-01,14(7)
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Tokarska, Katarzyna B.]'s Articles
[Hegerl, Gabriele C.]'s Articles
[Schurer, Andrew P.]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Tokarska, Katarzyna B.]'s Articles
[Hegerl, Gabriele C.]'s Articles
[Schurer, Andrew P.]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Tokarska, Katarzyna B.]‘s Articles
[Hegerl, Gabriele C.]‘s Articles
[Schurer, Andrew P.]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.