globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.25165/j.ijabe.20191204.4477
WOS记录号: WOS:000483293100015
论文题名:
Development of yield forecast model using multiple regression analysis and study of the impact of climatic parameters on spring wheat
作者: Mistry, Purbasha1; Bora, Ganesh2
通讯作者: Bora, Ganesh
刊名: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL AND BIOLOGICAL ENGINEERING
ISSN: 1934-6344
EISSN: 1934-6352
出版年: 2019
卷: 12, 期:4, 页码:110-115
语种: 英语
英文关键词: yield ; forecast modelling ; multiple regression ; climatic parameters ; spring wheat
WOS学科分类: Agricultural Engineering
WOS研究方向: Agriculture
英文摘要:

Understanding the impacts of climate change in agriculture is important to ensure optimal and continuous crop production. The agricultural sector plays a significant role in the economy of Upper Midwestern states in the USA, especially that of North Dakota (ND). Spring wheat contributes most of the wheat production in ND, which is a major producer of wheat in the USA. This study focuses on assessing possible impacts of three climate variables on spring wheat yield in ND by building a regression model. Eighty-five years of field data were collected and the trend of average minimum temperature along with average maximum temperature, average precipitation, and spring wheat yield was analyzed using Mann-Kendall test. The study area was divided into 9 divisions based on physical locations. The minimum temperature plays an important role in the region as it impacts the physiological development of the crops. Increasing trend was noticed for 6 divisions for average minimum temperature and average precipitation during growing season. Northeast and Southeast division showed the strongest increasing trend for average minimum temperature and average precipitation, respectively. East-central division had the most decreasing trend for average maximum temperature. A significant relationship was established between spring wheat yield and climatic parameters as the p-value is lower than 0.05 level which rejects the null hypothesis. The regression model was tested for forecasting accuracy. The percentage deviation of error for the model is approximately +/- 30% in most of the years.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/141208
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: 1.North Dakota State Univ, Nat Resources Management, Fargo, ND 58102 USA
2.Mississippi State Univ, Agr & Biol Engn Dept, Mississippi State, MS 39762 USA

Recommended Citation:
Mistry, Purbasha,Bora, Ganesh. Development of yield forecast model using multiple regression analysis and study of the impact of climatic parameters on spring wheat[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL AND BIOLOGICAL ENGINEERING,2019-01-01,12(4):110-115
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