globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1007/s00477-019-01694-y
WOS记录号: WOS:000478102300007
论文题名:
Hydrological post-processing based on approximate Bayesian computation (ABC)
作者: Romero-Cuellar, Jonathan1; Abbruzzo, Antonino2; Adelfio, Giada2; Frances, Felix1
通讯作者: Romero-Cuellar, Jonathan
刊名: STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT
ISSN: 1436-3240
EISSN: 1436-3259
出版年: 2019
卷: 33, 期:7, 页码:1361-1373
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Free-likelihood approach ; Probabilistic modelling ; Uncertainty analysis ; Hydrological forecasting ; Summary statistics
WOS关键词: SIGNATURE-DOMAIN CALIBRATION ; MODEL CONDITIONAL PROCESSOR ; CHAIN MONTE-CARLO ; PREDICTIVE UNCERTAINTY ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; FORECAST ; ERROR ; QUANTIFICATION ; POSTPROCESSOR ; ACCURACY
WOS学科分类: Engineering, Environmental ; Engineering, Civil ; Environmental Sciences ; Statistics & Probability ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向: Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Mathematics ; Water Resources
英文摘要:

This study introduces a method to quantify the conditional predictive uncertainty in hydrological post-processing contexts when it is cumbersome to calculate the likelihood (intractable likelihood). Sometimes, it can be difficult to calculate the likelihood itself in hydrological modelling, specially working with complex models or with ungauged catchments. Therefore, we propose the ABC post-processor that exchanges the requirement of calculating the likelihood function by the use of some sufficient summary statistics and synthetic datasets. The aim is to show that the conditional predictive distribution is qualitatively similar produced by the exact predictive (MCMC post-processor) or the approximate predictive (ABC post-processor). We also use MCMC post-processor as a benchmark to make results more comparable with the proposed method. We test the ABC post-processor in two scenarios: (1) the Aipe catchment with tropical climate and a spatially-lumped hydrological model (Colombia) and (2) the Oria catchment with oceanic climate and a spatially-distributed hydrological model (Spain). The main finding of the study is that the approximate (ABC post-processor) conditional predictive uncertainty is almost equivalent to the exact predictive (MCMC post-processor) in both scenarios.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/141323
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作者单位: 1.Univ Politecn Valencia, Res Inst Water & Environm Engn, Valencia, Spain
2.Univ Palermo, Dept Econ Business & Stat, Palermo, Italy

Recommended Citation:
Romero-Cuellar, Jonathan,Abbruzzo, Antonino,Adelfio, Giada,et al. Hydrological post-processing based on approximate Bayesian computation (ABC)[J]. STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT,2019-01-01,33(7):1361-1373
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