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DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/4/044016
Title:
Effects of model structural uncertainty on carbon cycle projections: biological nitrogen fixation as a case study
Author: William R Wieder; Cory C Cleveland; David M Lawrence; Gordon B Bonan
Source Publication: Environmental Research Letters
ISSN: 1748-9326
Indexed By: SCI-E ; EI
Publishing Year: 2015
Date Published: 2015-04-24
Volume: 10, Issue:4
Language: 英语
Subject in Chinese: ;
Subject: CARBON ; NITROGEN
English Abstract:

Uncertainties in terrestrial carbon (C) cycle projections increase uncertainty of potential climate feedbacks. Efforts to improve model performance often include increased representation of biogeochemical processes, such as coupled carbon–nitrogen (N) cycles. In doing so, models are becoming more complex, generating structural uncertainties in model form that reflect incomplete knowledge of how to represent underlying processes. Here, we explore structural uncertainties associated with biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) and quantify their effects on C cycle projections. We find that alternative plausible structures to represent BNF result in nearly equivalent terrestrial C fluxes and pools through the twentieth century, but the strength of the terrestrial C sink varies by nearly a third (50 Pg C) by the end of the twenty-first century under a business-as-usual climate change scenario representative concentration pathway 8.5. These results indicate that actual uncertainty in future C cycle projections may be larger than previously estimated, and this uncertainty will limit C cycle projections until model structures can be evaluated and refined.

Related Link: http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/4/044016
Citation statistics:
被引频次[WOS]:26   [查看WOS记录]     [查看WOS中相关记录]
Document Type: 期刊论文
Identifier: http://119.78.100.177/globalchange/handle/2HF3EXSE/14150
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候减缓与适应

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Affiliation: Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado 80307, USA;Department of Ecosystem and Conservation Sciences, University of Montana, Missoula, Montana 59812, USA;Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado 80307, USA;Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado 80307, USA

Recommended Citation:
William R Wieder,Cory C Cleveland,David M Lawrence,et al. Effects of model structural uncertainty on carbon cycle projections: biological nitrogen fixation as a case study[J]. Environmental Research Letters,2015-01-01,10(4)
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