globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054002
论文题名:
Attribution of the record high Central England temperature of 2014 to anthropogenic influences
作者: Andrew D King; Geert Jan van Oldenborgh; David J Karoly; Sophie C Lewis; Heidi Cullen
刊名: Environmental Research Letters
ISSN: 1748-9326
出版年: 2015
发表日期: 2015-05-01
卷: 10, 期:5
语种: 英语
英文摘要:

In 2014, Central England experienced its warmest year in a record extending back to 1659. Using both state-of-the-art climate models and empirical techniques, our analysis shows a substantial and significant increase in the likelihood of record-breaking warm years, such as 2014, due to human influences on climate. With 90% confidence we find that anthropogenic forcings on the climate have increased the chances of record warm years in Central England by at least 13-fold. This study points to a large influence of human activities on extreme warm years despite the small region of study and the variable climate of Central England. Our analysis shows that climate change is clearly visible on the local-scale in this case.

URL: http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054002
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/14164
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia;Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, The Netherlands;ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia;ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science and Research School of Earth Sciences, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australia;Climate Central, Princeton, USA

Recommended Citation:
Andrew D King,Geert Jan van Oldenborgh,David J Karoly,et al. Attribution of the record high Central England temperature of 2014 to anthropogenic influences[J]. Environmental Research Letters,2015-01-01,10(5)
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