globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/6/064006
论文题名:
Long-range forecasts of UK winter hydrology
作者: C Svensson; A Brookshaw; A A Scaife; V A Bell; J D Mackay; C R Jackson; J Hannaford; H N Davies; A Arribas; S Stanley
刊名: Environmental Research Letters
ISSN: 1748-9326
出版年: 2015
发表日期: 2015-06-09
卷: 10, 期:6
语种: 英语
英文摘要:

Seasonal river flow forecasts are beneficial for planning agricultural activities, river navigation, and for management of reservoirs for public water supply and hydropower generation. In the United Kingdom (UK), skilful seasonal river flow predictions have previously been limited to catchments in lowland (southern and eastern) regions. Here we show that skilful long-range forecasts of winter flows can now be achieved across the whole of the UK. This is due to a remarkable geographical complementarity between the regional geological and meteorological sources of predictability for river flows. Forecast skill derives from the hydrogeological memory of antecedent conditions in southern and eastern parts of the UK and from meteorological predictability in northern and western areas. Specifically, it is the predictions of the atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic that provides the skill at the seasonal timescale. In addition, significant levels of skill in predicting the frequency of winter high flow events is demonstrated, which has the potential to allow flood adaptation measures to be put in place.

URL: http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/6/064006
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/14193
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Maclean Building, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, Oxfordshire OX10 8BB, UK;Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon, EX1 3PB, UK;Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon, EX1 3PB, UK;Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Maclean Building, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, Oxfordshire OX10 8BB, UK;British Geological Survey, Environmental Science Centre, Keyworth, Nottingham, Nottinghamshire, NG12 5GG, UK;British Geological Survey, Environmental Science Centre, Keyworth, Nottingham, Nottinghamshire, NG12 5GG, UK;Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Maclean Building, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, Oxfordshire OX10 8BB, UK;Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Maclean Building, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, Oxfordshire OX10 8BB, UK;Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon, EX1 3PB, UK;Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon, EX1 3PB, UK

Recommended Citation:
C Svensson,A Brookshaw,A A Scaife,et al. Long-range forecasts of UK winter hydrology[J]. Environmental Research Letters,2015-01-01,10(6)
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