globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084006
论文题名:
Projected changes in regional climate extremes arising from Arctic sea ice loss
作者: James A Screen; Clara Deser; Lantao Sun
刊名: Environmental Research Letters
ISSN: 1748-9326
出版年: 2015
发表日期: 2015-08-03
卷: 10, 期:8
语种: 英语
英文摘要:

The decline in Arctic sea ice cover has been widely documented and it is clear that this change is having profound impacts locally. An emerging and highly uncertain area of scientific research, however, is whether such Arctic change has a tangible effect on weather and climate at lower latitudes. Of particular societal relevance is the open question: will continued Arctic sea ice loss make mid-latitude weather more extreme? Here we analyse idealized atmospheric general circulation model simulations, using two independent models, both forced by projected Arctic sea ice loss in the late twenty-first century. We identify robust projected changes in regional temperature and precipitation extremes arising solely due to Arctic sea ice loss. The likelihood and duration of cold extremes are projected to decrease over high latitudes and over central and eastern North America, but to increase over central Asia. Hot extremes are projected to increase in frequency and duration over high latitudes. The likelihood and severity of wet extremes are projected to increase over high latitudes, the Mediterranean and central Asia; and their intensity is projected to increase over high latitudes and central and eastern Asia. The number of dry days over mid-latitude Eurasia and dry spell duration over high latitudes are both projected to decrease. There is closer model agreement for projected changes in temperature extremes than for precipitation extremes. Overall, we find that extreme weather over central and eastern North America is more sensitive to Arctic sea ice loss than over other mid-latitude regions. Our results are useful for constraining the role of Arctic sea ice loss in shifting the odds of extreme weather, but must not be viewed as deterministic projections, as they do not account for drivers other than Arctic sea ice loss.

URL: http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084006
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被引频次[WOS]:61   [查看WOS记录]     [查看WOS中相关记录]
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/14244
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, Devon, UK;Climate and Global Dynamics, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA;Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado at Boulder and National Oceanic, and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA

Recommended Citation:
James A Screen,Clara Deser,Lantao Sun. Projected changes in regional climate extremes arising from Arctic sea ice loss[J]. Environmental Research Letters,2015-01-01,10(8)
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