globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.03.026
WOS记录号: WOS:000466007400014
论文题名:
Short communication: A model to predict flood loss in mountain areas
作者: Fuchs, Sven1; Heiser, Micha1; Schloegl, Matthias1; Zischg, Andreas2,3; Papathoma-Koehle, Maria1; Keiler, Margreth2,3
通讯作者: Fuchs, Sven
刊名: ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE
ISSN: 1364-8152
EISSN: 1873-6726
出版年: 2019
卷: 117, 页码:176-180
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Vulnerability ; Elements at risk ; Torrential hazards ; Loss ; Zero-and-one inflated beta regression ; Austria
WOS关键词: PHYSICAL VULNERABILITY ; RISK ; DAMAGE ; INDICATORS ; EXPOSURE ; CURVES
WOS学科分类: Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications ; Engineering, Environmental ; Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向: Computer Science ; Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
英文摘要:

Because effects of climate change and an increase in elements at risk, mountain hazard loss increased throughout Europe. Yet, factors influencing loss, i.e. vulnerability, have gained less attention to date. Vulnerability is defined as the degree of loss resulting from the hazard impact on buildings. Recent studies have focused on evaluating vulnerability to dynamic flooding using proxies from case studies and based on empirical ex-post approaches. However, the transferability to other case studies and, therefore, the ability of such models to actually predict future losses is limited. To overcome this gap, we present a beta model based on loss data from the European Alps, which clearly shows that a single vulnerability function is sufficient to predict losses resulting from different types of torrential hazards and to provide probabilities of destruction under specific scenarios. As a result, the curves are transferable and may significantly increase the predictive power of risk analyses.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/142757
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

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作者单位: 1.Univ Nat Resources & Life Sci, Inst Mt Risk Engn, Vienna, Austria
2.Univ Bern, Inst Geog, Bern, Switzerland
3.Univ Bern, Mobiliar Lab Nat Risks, Oeschger Ctr Climate Change Res, Bern, Switzerland

Recommended Citation:
Fuchs, Sven,Heiser, Micha,Schloegl, Matthias,et al. Short communication: A model to predict flood loss in mountain areas[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE,2019-01-01,117:176-180
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