globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1002/joc.5469
WOS记录号: WOS:000474001900009
论文题名:
Comparison of statistical downscaling methods with respect to extreme events over Europe: Validation results from the perfect predictor experiment of the COST Action VALUE
作者: Hertig, Elke1; Maraun, Douglas2; Bartholy, Judit3; Pongracz, Rita3; Vrac, Mathieu4; Mares, Ileana5; Gutierrez, Jose M.6; Wibig, Joanna7; Casanueva, Ana8,9; Soares, Pedro M. M.10
通讯作者: Hertig, Elke
刊名: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN: 0899-8418
EISSN: 1097-0088
出版年: 2019
卷: 39, 期:9, 页码:3846-3867
语种: 英语
英文关键词: downscaling ; extremes ; regional climate ; validation
WOS关键词: DAILY PRECIPITATION ; DAILY TEMPERATURE ; BIAS CORRECTION ; DAILY RAINFALL ; CLIMATE ; PERFORMANCE ; SIMULATIONS ; PROJECTION ; IMPACTS ; MODELS
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

Credible information about the properties and changes of extreme events on the regional and local scales is of prime importance in the context of future climate change. Within the EU-COST Action VALUE a comprehensive validation framework for downscaling methods has been developed. Here we present validation results for extremes of temperature and precipitation from the perfect predictor experiment that uses reanalysis-based predictors to isolate downscaling skill. The raw reanalysis output reveals that there is mostly a large bias with respect to the extreme index values at the considered stations across Europe, clearly pointing to the necessity of downscaling. The performance of the downscaling methods is closely linked to their specific structure and setup. All methods using parametric distributions require non-standard distributions to correctly represent marginal aspects of extremes. Also, the performance is much improved by explicitly including a seasonal component, particularly in case of precipitation. With respect to the marginal aspects of extremes the best performance is found for model output statistics (MOS), weather generators (WGs) as well as perfect prognosis (PP) methods using analogues. Spell-length-related extremes of temperature are best assessed by MOS and WGs, spell-length-related extremes of precipitation by MOS and PP methods using analogues. The skill of PP methods with transfer functions varies strongly across the methods and depends on the extreme index, region and season considered.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/142900
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

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作者单位: 1.Augsburg Univ, Inst Geog, Alter Postweg 118, D-86159 Augsburg, Germany
2.Karl Franzens Univ Graz, Wegener Ctr Climate & Global Change, Graz, Austria
3.Eotvos Lorand Univ, Dept Meteorol, Budapest, Hungary
4.UVSQ, CNRS, CEA, Ctr Etud Saclay,Lab Sci Climat & Environm LSCE IP, Gif Sur Yvette, France
5.Romanian Acad, Inst Geodynam, Bucharest, Romania
6.Univ Cantabria, Inst Phys Cantabria IFCA, Santander, Spain
7.Univ Lodz, Dept Meteorol & Climatol, Lodz, Poland
8.Univ Cantabria, Dept Appl Math & Comp Sci, Meteorol Grp, Santander, Spain
9.Fed Off Meteorol & Climatol MeteoSwiss, Zurich, Switzerland
10.Univ Lisbon, Fac Ciencias, Inst Dom Luiz, Lisbon, Portugal

Recommended Citation:
Hertig, Elke,Maraun, Douglas,Bartholy, Judit,et al. Comparison of statistical downscaling methods with respect to extreme events over Europe: Validation results from the perfect predictor experiment of the COST Action VALUE[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2019-01-01,39(9):3846-3867
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