globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.05.009
WOS记录号: WOS:000480375400008
论文题名:
Future impacts of environmental factors on achieving the SDG target on child mortality-A synergistic assessment
作者: Lucas, Paul L.1; Hilderink, Henk B. M.2; Janssen, Peter H. M.1; Samir, K. C.3,4; van Vuuren, Detlef P. A.1,6; Niessen, Louis5,7
通讯作者: Lucas, Paul L.
刊名: GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS
ISSN: 0959-3780
EISSN: 1872-9495
出版年: 2019
卷: 57
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Sustainable development goals ; Child mortality ; Integrated analysis ; Environmental risk
WOS关键词: SHARED SOCIOECONOMIC PATHWAYS ; SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS ; SYSTEMATIC ANALYSIS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; GLOBAL BURDEN ; 188 COUNTRIES ; DISEASE ; HEALTH ; SCENARIOS ; MODEL
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Geography
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geography
英文摘要:

An estimated 26% of current global child deaths can be attributed to various and modifiable environmental factors, which are addressed under multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This study assesses future reductions in child mortality in relation to the achievement of environment-related SDG targets. It uses projections of health risk factors from the IMAGE 3.0 Integrated Assessment Model, based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), linked to a standard multi-state health model (GISMO), distinguishing risk factors, disease occurrence and cause-specific death. The study concludes that, on a global level, the SDG target on child mortality will not be achieved in any of the three SSP scenarios analysed, mainly due to persistent high mortality rates in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. By 2030, environmental health risk factors - including childhood undernutrition, no access to improved drinking water and sanitation, no access to modem fuels and exposure to malaria - will still be responsible for 14% to 16% of total global child deaths (8% to 10% when excluding nutrition-related mortality). Under the middle-of-the-road SSP2 baseline scenario, achievement of the SDG targets on hunger, drinking water and sanitation and modem energy services, would avoid 433 thousand child deaths by 2030. If, in addition, also higher standards would be achieved for access to water and energy, as well as universal secondary female education and advanced malaria control, a total of 733 thousand child deaths is projected to be avoided by 2030 (444 thousand child deaths, when excluding nutrition-related mortality), which would reduce projected global child mortality by 13%. Overall, more than 25% of the child mortality reduction that is needed to achieve the SDG target in Sub-Saharan Africa can be achieved through SDG-related policies on food, water and energy. This requires integrated and intersectoral approaches to environmental health.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/142932
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

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作者单位: 1.PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, POB 30314, NL-2500 GH The Hague, Netherlands
2.Natl Inst Publ Hlth & Environm RIVM, POB 1, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands
3.Shanghai Univ, Asian Demog Res Inst, 99 Shangda Rd, Shanghai, Peoples R China
4.IIASA, Wittgenstein Ctr Demog & Global Human Capital, Schlosspl 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
5.Univ Liverpool Liverpool Sch Trop Med, Hlth Econ Unit, Pembroke Pl, Liverpool L3 8PQ, Merseyside, England
6.Univ Utrecht, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, Dept Geosci, Heidelberglaan 2, NL-3584 CS Utrecht, Netherlands
7.Johns Hopkins Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Int Hlth, NW Wolfe St, Baltimore, MD 21205 USA

Recommended Citation:
Lucas, Paul L.,Hilderink, Henk B. M.,Janssen, Peter H. M.,et al. Future impacts of environmental factors on achieving the SDG target on child mortality-A synergistic assessment[J]. GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS,2019-01-01,57
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