Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. There have been numerous studies of climate change impacts on agriculture or forestry, but relatively little research examining the long-term net impacts of a stabilization scenario relative to a case with unabated climate change. We provide an analysis of the potential benefits of global climate change mitigation for US agriculture and forestry through 2100, accounting for landowner decisions regarding land use, crop mix, and management practices. The analytic approach involves a combination of climate models, a crop process model (EPIC), a dynamic vegetation model used for forests (MC1), and an economic model of the US forestry and agricultural sector (FASOM-GHG). We find substantial impacts on productivity, commodity markets, and consumer and producer welfare for the stabilization scenario relative to unabated climate change, though the magnitude and direction of impacts vary across regions and commodities. Although there is variability in welfare impacts across climate simulations, we find positive net benefits from stabilization in all cases, with cumulative impacts ranging from $32.7 billion to $54.5 billion over the period 2015–2100. Our estimates contribute to the literature on potential benefits of GHG mitigation and can help inform policy decisions weighing alternative mitigation and adaptation actions.
RTI International, 3040 Cornwallis Road, PO Box 12194, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709, USA;RTI International, 3040 Cornwallis Road, PO Box 12194, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709, USA;Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, MD 20740, USA;Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, MD 20740, USA;Stratus Consulting Inc., 1881 Ninth Street, Suite 201, Boulder, CO 80302, USA;Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843-2124, USA;Climate Change Division, US Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW (6207-J), Washington, DC 20460, USA;Climate Change Division, US Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW (6207-J), Washington, DC 20460, USA;Climate Change Division, US Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW (6207-J), Washington, DC 20460, USA;Climate Change Division, US Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW (6207-J), Washington, DC 20460, USA;Climate Change Division, US Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW (6207-J), Washington, DC 20460, USA;Climate Change Division, US Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW (6207-J), Washington, DC 20460, USA;Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Joint Program on the Science & Policy of Global Change, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA;Industrial Economics, Inc., USA
Recommended Citation:
Robert H Beach,Yongxia Cai,Allison Thomson,et al. Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry: benefits of global climate stabilization[J]. Environmental Research Letters,2015-01-01,10(9)