globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-46362-x
WOS记录号: WOS:000474821000019
论文题名:
Future changes in extreme weather and pyroconvection risk factors for Australian wildfires
作者: Dowdy, Andrew J.1; Ye, Hua1; Pepler, Acacia1; Thatcher, Marcus2; Osbrough, Stacey L.2; Evans, Jason P.3,4; Di Virgilio, Giovanni3; McCarthy, Nicholas5
通讯作者: Dowdy, Andrew J.
刊名: SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
ISSN: 2045-2322
出版年: 2019
卷: 9
语种: 英语
WOS关键词: FIRE WEATHER ; BLACK SATURDAY ; BEHAVIOR ; INDEX
WOS学科分类: Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS研究方向: Science & Technology - Other Topics
英文摘要:

Extreme wildfires have recently caused disastrous impacts in Australia and other regions of the world, including events with strong convective processes in their plumes (i.e., strong pyroconvection). Dangerous wildfire events such as these could potentially be influenced by anthropogenic climate change, however, there are large knowledge gaps on how these events might change in the future. The McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) is used to represent near-surface weather conditions and the Continuous Haines index (CH) is used here to represent lower to mid-tropospheric vertical atmospheric stability and humidity measures relevant to dangerous wildfires and pyroconvective processes. Projected changes in extreme measures of CH and FFDI are examined using a multi-method approach, including an ensemble of global climate models together with two ensembles of regional climate models. The projections show a clear trend towards more dangerous near-surface fire weather conditions for Australia based on the FFDI, as well as increased pyroconvection risk factors for some regions of southern Australia based on the CH. These results have implications for fields such as disaster risk reduction, climate adaptation, ecology, policy and planning, noting that improved knowledge on how climate change can influence extreme wildfires can help reduce future impacts of these events.


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被引频次[WOS]:90   [查看WOS记录]     [查看WOS中相关记录]
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/143276
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

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作者单位: 1.Bur Meteorol, Climate Res Sect, Melbourne, Vic, Australia
2.CSIRO, Melbourne, Vic, Australia
3.Univ New South Wales, Climate Change Res Ctr, Sydney, NSW, Australia
4.Univ New South Wales, Australian Res Council Ctr Excellence Climate Ext, Sydney, NSW, Australia
5.Univ Queensland, Brisbane, Qld, Australia

Recommended Citation:
Dowdy, Andrew J.,Ye, Hua,Pepler, Acacia,et al. Future changes in extreme weather and pyroconvection risk factors for Australian wildfires[J]. SCIENTIFIC REPORTS,2019-01-01,9
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