全球变化知识资源中心

Based on the daily temperature data from 26 meteorological stations in the Minjiang River Basin, for 1961 to 2016, the temporal trend and spatial distribution of extreme temperature in this region were analyzed using 16 extreme temperature indices. The results show that in terms of time variation, determined using linear trend analysis and a Mann-Kendall trend test, the warm and day indices mainly show an upward trend while the cold and night indices mainly show a downward trend in the entire basin. Among them, FD0, TN10, and CSDI significantly decrease at -1.3, -2.9, and -1.1d/10a, respectively. TN90, TX90, SU25, and TR20 significantly increase at 3.0, 2.6, 2.1, and 2.2d/10a, respectively. The crop growth period in the basin showed a significant increasing trend at 1.4days/decade, while the diurnal temperature range showed a nonsignificant increasing trend at 0.03days/decade. On comparing the change range of each index, it was found that the change range of the warm index is greater than that of the cold index, while the change range of the day index is smaller than that of the night index; thus, the change trends of the maximum and minimum temperatures in the whole basin are not obvious. Analysis of the changing trend at each station showed that the relative index of the extreme temperature in the basin has good climatic consistency in terms of spatial distribution. The distributions of the absolute and extreme indices are not uniform, which is consistent with the change in elevation in the basin. Further, the diurnal temperature range in the upper reaches of the basin is greater than that in the middle and lower reaches. However, because of the more obvious upward trends of the day and warm indices in the middle and lower reaches, and the more obvious downward trends of the night and cold indices in the upper reaches, the daily temperature differences in the upper, middle, and lower reaches of the Minjiang River Basin tend to be consistent. Therefore, the precipitation in the Minjiang River Basin shows a significant decreasing trend; thus, the basin shows a trend of drying and warming.