globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-46597-8
WOS记录号: WOS:000475468600001
论文题名:
Temperature rising would slow down tropical forest dynamic in the Guiana Shield
作者: Aubry-Kientz, Melaine1,2; Rossi, Vivien3,4; Cornu, Guillaume3; Wagner, Fabien5; Herault, Bruno3,6
通讯作者: Herault, Bruno
刊名: SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
ISSN: 2045-2322
出版年: 2019
卷: 9
语种: 英语
WOS关键词: DROUGHT-INDUCED TREE ; RAIN-FOREST ; RESEARCH FRONTIERS ; CLIMATIC DRIVERS ; CARBON BALANCE ; GROWTH ; MORTALITY ; TRAITS ; LEAF ; PRODUCTIVITY
WOS学科分类: Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS研究方向: Science & Technology - Other Topics
英文摘要:

Increasing evidence shows that the functioning of the tropical forest biome is intimately related to the climate variability with some variables such as annual precipitation, temperature or seasonal water stress identified as key drivers of ecosystem dynamics. How tropical tree communities will respond to the future climate change is hard to predict primarily because several demographic processes act together to shape the forest ecosystem general behavior. To overcome this limitation, we used a joint individual-based model to simulate, over the next century, a tropical forest community experiencing the climate change expected in the Guiana Shield. The model is climate dependent: temperature, precipitation and water stress are used as predictors of the joint growth and mortality rates. We ran simulations for the next century using predictions of the IPCC 5AR, building three different climate scenarios (optimistic RCP2.6, intermediate, pessimistic RCP8.5) and a control (current climate). The basal area, above-ground fresh biomass, quadratic diameter, tree growth and mortality rates were then computed as summary statistics to characterize the resulting forest ecosystem. Whatever the scenario, all ecosystem process and structure variables exhibited decreasing values as compared to the control. A sensitivity analysis identified the temperature as the strongest climate driver of this behavior, highlighting a possible temperature-driven drop of 40% in average forest growth. This conclusion is alarming, as temperature rises have been consensually predicted by all climate scenarios of the IPCC 5AR. Our study highlights the potential slow-down danger that tropical forests will face in the Guiana Shield during the next century.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/143398
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

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作者单位: 1.Univ Antilles, UMR Ecol Forets Guyane, AgroParisTech, Univ Guyane,Cirad,CNRS,Inra, F-97310 Kourou, France
2.Univ Montpellier, CNRS, CIRAD, AMAP,IRD,INRA, Montpellier, France
3.Univ Montpellier, Cirad, UR Forests & Societies, Montpellier, France
4.Univ Yaounde I, UMMISCO UMI 209, BP337, Yaounde, Cameroon
5.Natl Inst Space Res INPE, Remote Sensing Div, Sao Jose Dos Campos, SP, Brazil
6.Inst Natl Polytech Felix Houphouet Boigny INP HB, Yamoussoukro, Cote Ivoire

Recommended Citation:
Aubry-Kientz, Melaine,Rossi, Vivien,Cornu, Guillaume,et al. Temperature rising would slow down tropical forest dynamic in the Guiana Shield[J]. SCIENTIFIC REPORTS,2019-01-01,9
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