globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-12-3017-2019
WOS记录号: WOS:000475762500001
论文题名:
Reducing climate model biases by exploring parameter space with large ensembles of climate model simulations and statistical emulation
作者: Li, Sihan1,2; Rupp, David E.3; Hawkins, Linnia3,4; Mote, Philip W.3,4; McNeall, Doug5; Sparrow, Sarah N.2; Wallom, David C. H.2; Betts, Richard A.5,6; Wettstein, Justin J.4,7,8
通讯作者: Li, Sihan
刊名: GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT
ISSN: 1991-959X
EISSN: 1991-9603
出版年: 2019
卷: 12, 期:7, 页码:3017-3043
语种: 英语
WOS关键词: EARTHS ENERGY-BALANCE ; WESTERN UNITED-STATES ; GLOBAL PRECIPITATION ; DATA ASSIMILATION ; COUPLED MODEL ; UNCERTAINTY ; TEMPERATURE ; SENSITIVITY ; PROJECTIONS ; PHYSICS
WOS学科分类: Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向: Geology
英文摘要:

Understanding the unfolding challenges of climate change relies on climate models, many of which have large summer warm and dry biases over Northern Hemisphere continental midlatitudes. This work, with the example of the model used in the updated version of the weather@home distributed climate model framework, shows the potential for improving climate model simulations through a multi-phased parameter refinement approach, particularly over the northwestern United States (NWUS). Each phase consists of (1) creating a perturbed parameter ensemble with the coupled global-regional atmospheric model, (2) building statistical emulators that estimate climate metrics as functions of parameter values, (3) and using the emulators to further refine the parameter space. The refinement process includes sensitivity analyses to identify the most influential parameters for various model output metrics; results are then used to cull parameters with little influence. Three phases of this iterative process are carried out before the results are considered to be satisfactory; that is, a handful of parameter sets are identified that meet acceptable bias reduction criteria. Results not only indicate that 74% of the NWUS regional warm biases can be reduced by refining global atmospheric parameters that control convection and hydrometeor transport, as well as land surface parameters that affect plant photosynthesis, transpiration, and evaporation, but also suggest that this iterative approach to perturbed parameters has an important role to play in the evolution of physical parameterizations.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/143488
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

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作者单位: 1.Univ Oxford, Environm Change Inst, Sch Geog & Environm, Oxford, England
2.Univ Oxford, Oxford E Res Ctr, Oxford, England
3.Oregon State Univ, Coll Earth Ocean & Atmospher Sci, Oregon Climate Change Res Inst, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA
4.Oregon State Univ, Coll Earth Ocean & Atmospher Sci, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA
5.Met Off Hadley Ctr, FitzRoy Rd, Exeter, Devon, England
6.Univ Exeter, Coll Life & Environm Sci, Exeter, Devon, England
7.Univ Bergen, Geophys Inst, Bergen, Norway
8.Bjerknes Ctr Climate Change Res, Bergen, Norway

Recommended Citation:
Li, Sihan,Rupp, David E.,Hawkins, Linnia,et al. Reducing climate model biases by exploring parameter space with large ensembles of climate model simulations and statistical emulation[J]. GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT,2019-01-01,12(7):3017-3043
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