globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1111/ele.13348
WOS记录号: WOS:000478534900001
论文题名:
Forecasting species range dynamics with process-explicit models: matching methods to applications
作者: Briscoe, Natalie J.1; Elith, Jane1; Salguero-Gomez, Roberto2,3,4; Lahoz-Monfort, Jose J.1; Camac, James S.1; Giljohann, Katherine M.1; Holden, Matthew H.3; Hradsky, Bronwyn A.1; Kearney, Michael R.1; McMahon, Sean M.5; Phillips, Ben L.1; Regan, Tracey J.1,6; Rhodes, Jonathan R.7; Vesk, Peter A.1; Wintle, Brendan A.1; Yen, Jian D. L.1; Guillera-Arroita, Gurutzeta1
通讯作者: Briscoe, Natalie J.
刊名: ECOLOGY LETTERS
ISSN: 1461-023X
EISSN: 1461-0248
出版年: 2019
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Demography ; mechanistic ; population dynamics ; process-based models ; species distribution model
WOS关键词: INTEGRAL PROJECTION MODELS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; POPULATION-DYNAMICS ; EXTINCTION RISK ; SPATIAL SPREAD ; R-PACKAGE ; METAPOPULATION VIABILITY ; ENVIRONMENTAL-CHANGE ; MECHANISTIC MODELS ; OCCUPANCY MODELS
WOS学科分类: Ecology
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology
英文摘要:

Knowing where species occur is fundamental to many ecological and environmental applications. Species distribution models (SDMs) are typically based on correlations between species occurrence data and environmental predictors, with ecological processes captured only implicitly. However, there is a growing interest in approaches that explicitly model processes such as physiology, dispersal, demography and biotic interactions. These models are believed to offer more robust predictions, particularly when extrapolating to novel conditions. Many process-explicit approaches are now available, but it is not clear how we can best draw on this expanded modelling toolbox to address ecological problems and inform management decisions. Here, we review a range of process-explicit models to determine their strengths and limitations, as well as their current use. Focusing on four common applications of SDMs - regulatory planning, extinction risk, climate refugia and invasive species - we then explore which models best meet management needs. We identify barriers to more widespread and effective use of process-explicit models and outline how these might be overcome. As well as technical and data challenges, there is a pressing need for more thorough evaluation of model predictions to guide investment in method development and ensure the promise of these new approaches is fully realised.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/143843
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

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作者单位: 1.Univ Melbourne, Sch Biosci, Melbourne, Vic, Australia
2.Univ Oxford, Dept Zool, Oxford, England
3.Univ Queensland, Sch Biol Sci, Brisbane, Qld, Australia
4.Max Planck Inst Demog Res, Rostock, Germany
5.Smithsonian Environm Res Ctr, Forest Global Earth Observ, POB 28, Edgewater, MD 21037 USA
6.Arthur Rylah Inst Environm Res, Dept Environm Land Water & Planning, Heidelberg, Vic, Australia
7.Univ Queensland, Sch Earth & Environm Sci, Brisbane, Qld, Australia

Recommended Citation:
Briscoe, Natalie J.,Elith, Jane,Salguero-Gomez, Roberto,et al. Forecasting species range dynamics with process-explicit models: matching methods to applications[J]. ECOLOGY LETTERS,2019-01-01
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