globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/124003
论文题名:
Top ten European heatwaves since 1950 and their occurrence in the coming decades
作者: Simone Russo; Jana Sillmann; Erich M Fischer
刊名: Environmental Research Letters
ISSN: 1748-9326
出版年: 2015
发表日期: 2015-11-27
卷: 10, 期:12
语种: 英语
英文摘要:

The Russian heatwave in 2010 killed tens of thousands of people, and was by far the worst event in Europe since at least 1950, according to recent studies and a novel universal heatwave index capturing both the duration and magnitude of heatwaves. Here, by taking an improved version of this index, namely the heat wave magnitude index daily, we rank the top ten European heatwaves that occurred in the period 1950–2014, and show the spatial distribution of the magnitude of the most recent heatwave in summer 2015. We demonstrate that all these events had a strong impact reported in historical newspapers. We further reveal that the 1972 heatwave in Finland had a comparable spatial extent and magnitude as the European heatwave of 2003, considered the second strongest heatwave of the observational era. In the next two decades (2021–2040), regional climate projections suggest that Europe experiences an enhanced probability for heatwaves comparable to or greater than the magnitude, extent and duration of the Russian heatwave in 2010. We demonstrate that the probability of experiencing a major European heatwave in the coming decades is higher in RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 even though global mean temperature projections do not differ substantially. This calls for a proactive vulnerability assessment in Europe in support of formulating heatwave adaptation strategies to reduce the adverse impacts of heatwaves.

URL: http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/124003
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/14395
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy;Institute for Environmental Protection and Research (ISPRA), Rome, Italy;Center for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO), Pb. 1129 Blindern, N-0318 Oslo, Norway;Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Universitatstrasse 16, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland

Recommended Citation:
Simone Russo,Jana Sillmann,Erich M Fischer. Top ten European heatwaves since 1950 and their occurrence in the coming decades[J]. Environmental Research Letters,2015-01-01,10(12)
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