全球变化知识资源中心

Changes in the temperature and precipitation have significantly affected water resources and agricultural productions in many countries across the world. The objective of the present study is to analyze the changing patterns of annual and seasonal precipitation and temperature in Iraq for the period 1961-2010. Monthly gridded precipitation and temperature data of Global precipitation climate center (GPCC) and climate research unit (CRU) respectively having a spatial resolution of 0.5 degrees were used in this study to show the spatial pattern in trends. The rate of change in rainfall and temperature was estimated using Sen's slope method while the significance of change was confirmed using Mann-Kendal test (MK) and the modified Mann-Kendall test (mMK). The results revealed large differences in the number of grid points showing significant changes in rainfall and temperature using MK and mMK methods. The mMK method revealed that the annual rainfall is decreasing at a rate of -1.0 to -5.0mm/year in the northwest part of Iraq. The seasonal precipitations were found to decrease in spring (-0.4 to -2.56mm/year) and winter (-0.4 to -2.0mm/year), increase in summer (0.06 to 0.21mm/year) at a few grid points and no change in autumn. On the other hand, a sharp rise in annual average of daily mean (0.42 to 0.64 degrees C/decade), maximum (0.39 to 0.65 degrees C/decade) and minimum (0.36 to 0.69 degrees C/decade) temperature was observed.