全球变化知识资源中心

In this study, the performance of the Beijing Climate Center (BCC) Climate System Model version 1.1 (BCC-CSM1.1) (280-km resolution) and the BCC-CSM1.1m (110-km resolution) in simulating extreme climate events over China in the last 40 years is compared. Both models capture the main spatial distribution features of heavy precipitation (R95T), the number of consecutive wet days (CWD), the annual count of days with precipitation mm (R1), the maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation (Rx5), and the numbers of frost days (FD) and summer days (SU). The BCC-CSM1.1m has a better ability to simulate the detailed distribution of extreme climate events than the BCC-CSM1.1, including R95T, CWD, R1, and the simple precipitation intensity index (SDII). However, the BCC-CSM1.1m does not show an improvement in simulating the number of days with extreme precipitation (R90N), the number of consecutive dry days (CDD), the heat wave duration index (HWDI), the warm day frequency (TX90P), and cold night frequency (TN10P). This indicates that the simulation of the R95T, CWD, R1, and SDII climate events is more sensitive to the resolution of the model. The improved BCC-CSM1.1m is used to explore the projection of extreme climate change in China during the 21st century under the RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathways) and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results show that extreme precipitation will increase dramatically over North and Southwest China in the late 21st century. The CWD index will decrease on the Tibetan Plateau and in northeastern and central China and will increase in other parts of China; R1 will increase in northern China and decrease in southern China; Rx5 will increase dramatically in southern China; FD will decrease and SU will increase over China in the late 21st century under both emission scenarios, with larger amplitudes in RCP8.5.