DISTRIBUTION MODELS
; MOUNTAIN PLANTS
; FUTURE
; IMPACTS
; DISTRIBUTIONS
; BIODIVERSITY
; SCENARIOS
; RANGE
; ASSEMBLAGES
WOS学科分类:
Ecology
WOS研究方向:
Environmental Sciences & Ecology
英文摘要:
Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to project how suitable ranges of species shift under a warming climate. Conservation management, however, commonly targets habitat types rather than individual species. Such habitat types are often defined by the co-occurrence of a set of characteristic species. Here, we develop a co-occurrence-based index (CRI); which measures how the representation of habitat types in a particular area may change in a future climate. The index is based on stacking projections of distribution models of characteristic species and accounts for changes both in potential range size of each species individually and in spatial range overlap among characteristic species, i.e. co-occurrence patterns. We illustrate the approach by modelling the changing representation of 68 habitat types in Austria under two different climate scenarios. We base index calculations on SDM projections under either the assumption of unrestricted mobility ('full-dispersal') or of complete immobility ('no-dispersal') of individual species. Moreover, we compare results to those achieved with a simpler occurrence-based index (OI); which only accounts for change in specie's range sizes. All three alternative index calculations suggest that most modelled habitat types will lose area (in particular mires, wetlands and siliceous alpine grasslands) and only a minority will profit from a warming climate (in particular forests of dry and warm sites). 'Full-dispersal' CRI and OI are closely, but not perfectly correlated. Importantly, for more than half of the habitat types, accounting for changing co-occurrence patterns amplifies projected losses. The 'no-dispersal' CRI (CRInd) delivers the most alarming projections, indicating considerable spatial turn-over of sites suitable to the habitat types. Taken together, our results suggest that modelling re-distribution of habitat types which are defined by species combinations needs to account for modifications of co-occurrence patterns. Moreover, conservation should acknowledge that novel combinations of species will likely emerge under a warming climate. (C) 2019 Published by Elsevier GmbH on behalf of Gesellschaft fur Okologie.
1.Univ Vienna, Dept Bot & Biodivers Res, Div Conservat Biol Vegetat & Landscape Ecol, Rennweg 14, A-1030 Vienna, Austria 2.Environm Agcy Austria, Spittelauer Lande 5, A-1090 Vienna, Austria 3.VINCA, Giessergasse 6-7, A-1090 Vienna, Austria 4.Masaryk Univ, Fac Sci, Dept Bot & Zool, Kotlarska 2, Brno 61137, Czech Republic 5.Sapienza Univ Roma, Dept Environm Biol, Bot Garden, Largo Cristina di Svezia 24, I-00165 Rome, Italy 6.Univ Pecs, Hungarian Acad Sci, Res Grp Biol Adaptat, Ifjusag U 6, HU-7601 Pecs, Hungary 7.Transilvania Univ Brasov, Dept Silviculture, 1 Sirul Beethoven, Brasov 500123, Romania 8.Martin Luther Univ Halle Wittenberg, Inst Biol, Kirchtor 1, D-06108 Halle, Germany 9.Univ Wroclaw, Inst Envimnnzental Biol, Dept Bot, Kanonia 6-8, PL-50328 Wroclaw, Poland 10.Slovenian Acad Sci & Arts, Sci Ctr, Inst Biol, Novi Trg 2, Ljubljana 1000, Slovenia 11.Univ Zagreb, Fac Forestry, Svetosimunska 25, Zagreb 10000, Croatia 12.Univ Zagreb, Fac Geotech Engn, Hallerova Aleja 7, Varazhdin 42000, Croatia 13.Slovak Acad Sci, Inst Bot, Dubravska Cesta 9, Bratislava 84523, Slovakia
Recommended Citation:
Baatar, Undrakh-Od,Dirnboeck, Thomas,Essl, Franz,et al. Evaluating climatic threats to habitat types based on co-occurrence patterns of characteristic species[J]. BASIC AND APPLIED ECOLOGY,2019-01-01,38:23-35