globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0525-6
WOS记录号: WOS:000477738300015
论文题名:
An emerging tropical cyclone-deadly heat compound hazard
作者: Matthews, T.1; Wilby, R. L.1; Murphy, C.2
通讯作者: Matthews, T.
刊名: NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
ISSN: 1758-678X
EISSN: 1758-6798
出版年: 2019
卷: 9, 期:8, 页码:602-+
语种: 英语
WOS关键词: CLIMATE-CHANGE ; INTENSITY ; RISK
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

Climate change may bring new hazards through novel combinations of extreme weather (compound events)(1). Here we evaluate the possibility of dangerous heat following major tropical cyclones (TCs)-a combination with serious potential consequences given that mega-blackouts may follow powerful TCs2, and the heavy reliance on air conditioning(3). We show that 'TC-heat' events are already possible along densely populated coastlines globally but, to date, only an estimated 1,000 people have been impacted. However, this number could rise markedly with over two million at risk under a storyline of the observed TCs recurring in a world 2 degrees C warmer than pre-industrial times. Using analogues as focusing events we show, for example, that if the catastrophic 1991 Bangladesh cyclone occurred with 2 degrees C global warming, there would be >70% chance of subsequent dangerous heat. This research highlights a gap in adaptation planning and a need to prepare for an emerging TC-heat compound hazard.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/144288
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

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作者单位: 1.Loughborough Univ, Dept Geog & Environm, Loughborough, Leics, England
2.Maynooth Univ, Dept Geog, Irish Climate Anal & Res Units, Maynooth, Kildare, Ireland

Recommended Citation:
Matthews, T.,Wilby, R. L.,Murphy, C.. An emerging tropical cyclone-deadly heat compound hazard[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2019-01-01,9(8):602-+
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