globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1007/s11269-019-02306-8
WOS记录号: WOS:000481790200003
论文题名:
Spatial Assessment of Climate Risk for Investigating Climate Adaptation Strategies by Evaluating Spatial-Temporal Variability of Extreme Precipitation
作者: Jhong, Bing-Chen1; Huang, Jung2; Tung, Ching-Pin2
通讯作者: Jhong, Bing-Chen
刊名: WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT
ISSN: 0920-4741
EISSN: 1573-1650
出版年: 2019
卷: 33, 期:10, 页码:3377-3400
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change ; Spatial assessment ; Climate risk ; Adaptation strategy ; Precipitation extremes ; Joint probability distribution ; Copula function
WOS关键词: FUTURE JOINT PROBABILITY ; HUMAN HEALTH ; COPULA ; IMPACTS ; FRAMEWORK ; DROUGHT ; VULNERABILITY ; TEMPERATURE ; PATTERNS ; WEATHER
WOS学科分类: Engineering, Civil ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向: Engineering ; Water Resources
英文摘要:

In response to the impacts of extreme precipitation on human or natural systems under climate change, the development of climate risk assessment approach is a crucial task. In this paper, a novel risk assessing approach based on a climate risk assessment framework with copula-based approaches is proposed. Firstly, extreme precipitation indices (EPIs) and their marginal distributions are estimated for historical and future periods. Next, the joint probability distributions of extreme precipitation are constructed by copula methods and tested by goodness-of-fit indices. The future joint probabilities and joint return periods (JRPs) of the EPIs are then evaluated. Finally, change rates of JRPs for future periods are estimated to assess climate risk with the quantitative data of exposure and vulnerability of a protected target. An actual application in Taiwan Island is successfully conducted for climate risk assessment with the impacts of extreme precipitation. The results indicate that most of regions in Taiwan Island might have higher potential climate risk under different scenarios in the future. The future joint probabilities of precipitation extremes might cause the high risk of landslide and flood disasters in the mountainous area, and of inundation in the plain area. In sum, the proposed climate risk assessing approach is expected to be useful for assisting decision makers to draft adaptation strategies and face high risk of the possible occurrence of natural disasters.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/144549
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

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作者单位: 1.Kyoto Univ, Grad Sch Engn, Dept Civil & Earth Resources Engn, Kyoto 6158540, Japan
2.Natl Taiwan Univ, Dept Bioenvironm Syst Engn, Taipei 10617, Taiwan

Recommended Citation:
Jhong, Bing-Chen,Huang, Jung,Tung, Ching-Pin. Spatial Assessment of Climate Risk for Investigating Climate Adaptation Strategies by Evaluating Spatial-Temporal Variability of Extreme Precipitation[J]. WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT,2019-01-01,33(10):3377-3400
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