globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1111/nrm.12211
WOS记录号: WOS:000482217500004
论文题名:
Optimal harvest strategy for even-aged stands with price uncertainty and risk of natural disturbances
作者: Susaeta, Andres1; Gong, Peichen2
通讯作者: Susaeta, Andres
刊名: NATURAL RESOURCE MODELING
ISSN: 0890-8575
EISSN: 1939-7445
出版年: 2019
卷: 32, 期:3
语种: 英语
英文关键词: adaptive harvest strategy ; forest fire ; natural disturbances ; optimal harvest age ; reservation price
WOS关键词: FOREST MANAGEMENT ; ADAPTIVE OPTIMIZATION ; POPULATION-DYNAMICS ; OPTIMAL ROTATION ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; FIRE ; ECONOMICS ; IMPACT ; MODEL
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences ; Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Mathematics
英文摘要:

We present a reservation price model to examine the joint impacts of natural disturbances and stumpage price uncertainty on the optimal harvesting decision for even-aged forest stands. We consider a landowner who manages a loblolly pine stand to produce timber and amenities, under age-dependent risk of wildfires and uncertainty in future timber prices. We show that the incorporation of risk of wildfires decreases the optimal reservation prices. The inclusion of risk of wildfires leads to lower land values and reduces the mean harvest age compared with the case of no-risk of wildfires. Higher economic gains are obtained with the reservation price strategy compared with the deterministic rotation age model-a difference in the land value of $2,326 ha(-1) (21%) between the two approaches. Recommendations for Resource Managers


Our adaptive harvest strategy shows that the incorporation of risk of wildfires decreases the optimal reservation prices compared with the case of no-risk of wildfires. Low reservation prices-a price that makes the landowner indifferent between harvesting or waiting longer-result in lower economic benefits for landowners and potential conversions of lands to nonforest use. Forest management practices oriented to reduce the effects of catastrophic disturbances, for example, creating a more complex forest structure with different stand densities, become imperative to ensure the sustainability of forestlands in the US South. Our analysis also suggests that the valuation of forestry investments should consider not only the risk of catastrophic events but also uncertainty in future timber prices. Higher appraisals of land value are obtained when timber price uncertainty is explicitly recognized, providing financial incentives for landowners to invest in forestry.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/144562
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

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作者单位: 1.Univ Florida, Inst Food & Agr Sci, Sch Forest Resources & Conservat, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA
2.Swedish Univ Agr Sci, Dept Forest Econ, Ctr Environm & Resource Econ, Umea, Sweden

Recommended Citation:
Susaeta, Andres,Gong, Peichen. Optimal harvest strategy for even-aged stands with price uncertainty and risk of natural disturbances[J]. NATURAL RESOURCE MODELING,2019-01-01,32(3)
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