globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2019.06.007
WOS记录号: WOS:000475554300020
论文题名:
A generalized framework for process-informed nonstationary extreme value analysis
作者: Ragno, Elisa1; AghaKouchak, Amir1; Cheng, Linyin2; Sadegh, Mojtaba3
通讯作者: Ragno, Elisa
刊名: ADVANCES IN WATER RESOURCES
ISSN: 0309-1708
EISSN: 1872-9657
出版年: 2019
卷: 130, 页码:270-282
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Process-informed nonstationary extreme value analysis ; Physical-based covariates/drivers ; Methods for nonstationary analysis
WOS关键词: FLOOD FREQUENCY-ANALYSIS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; HEAVY-PRECIPITATION ; RETURN PERIOD ; IDF CURVES ; RISK ; STATIONARITY ; RAINFALL ; MODEL ; INTENSITY
WOS学科分类: Water Resources
WOS研究方向: Water Resources
英文摘要:

Evolving climate conditions and anthropogenic factors, such as CO2 emissions, urbanization and population growth, can cause changes in weather and climate extremes. Most current risk assessment models rely on the assumption of stationarity (i.e., no temporal change in statistics of extremes). Most nonstationary modeling studies focus primarily on changes in extremes over time. Here, we present Process-informed Nonstationary Extreme Value Analysis (ProNEVA) as a generalized tool for incorporating different types of physical drivers (i.e., underlying processes), stationary and nonstationary concepts, and extreme value analysis methods (i.e., annual maxima, peak-over-threshold). ProNEVA builds upon a newly-developed hybrid evolution Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach for numerical parameters estimation and uncertainty assessment. This offers more robust uncertainty estimates of return periods of climatic extremes under both stationary and nonstationary assumptions. ProNEVA is designed as a generalized tool allowing using different types of data and nonstationarity concepts physically-based or purely statistical) into account. In this paper, we show a wide range of applications describing changes in: annual maxima river discharge in response to urbanization, annual maxima sea levels over time, annual maxima temperatures in response to CO2 emissions in the atmosphere, and precipitation with a peakover-threshold approach. ProNEVA is freely available to the public and includes a user-friendly Graphical User Interface (GUI) to enhance its implementation.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/144802
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

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作者单位: 1.Univ Calif Irvine, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Irvine, CA 92697 USA
2.Univ Arkansas, Dept Geosci, Fayetteville, AR 72701 USA
3.Boise State Univ, Dept Civil Engn, Boise, ID 83725 USA

Recommended Citation:
Ragno, Elisa,AghaKouchak, Amir,Cheng, Linyin,et al. A generalized framework for process-informed nonstationary extreme value analysis[J]. ADVANCES IN WATER RESOURCES,2019-01-01,130:270-282
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