The increase in surface air temperature in China has been faster than the global rate, and more high temperature spells are expected to occur in future. Here we assess the annual heat-related mortality in densely populated cities of China at 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C global warming. For this, the urban population is projected under five SSPs, and 31 GCM runs as well as temperature-mortality relation curves are applied. The annual heat-related mortality is projected to increase from 32.1 per million inhabitants annually in 1986-2005 to 48.8-67.1 per million for the 1.5 degrees C warming and to 59.2-81.3 per million for the 2.0 degrees C warming, taking improved adaptation capacity into account. Without improved adaptation capacity, heat-related mortality will increase even stronger. If all 831 million urban inhabitants in China are considered, the additional warming from 1.5 degrees C to 2 degrees C will lead to more than 27.9 thousand additional heat-related deaths, annually.
1.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Inst Disaster Risk Management, Sch Geog Sci, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, State Key Lab Desert & Oasis Ecol, Urumqi 830011, Peoples R China 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 4.China Meteorol Adm, Natl Climate Ctr, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China 5.Jinan Univ, Inst Environm & Climate Res, Guangzhou 511443, Guangdong, Peoples R China 6.Chinese Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Natl Inst Communicable Dis Control & Prevent, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China 7.Ningbo Univ, Fac Architectural Civil Engn & Environm, Ningbo 31511, Zhejiang, Peoples R China 8.Polish Acad Sci, Inst Agr & Forest Environm, Poznan, Poland 9.Jiangxi Climate Ctr, Nanchang 330096, Jiangxi, Peoples R China 10.Univ Edinburgh, Sch Geosci, Edinburgh EH8 9XP, Midlothian, Scotland 11.Eberhard Karls Univ Tubingen, Dept Geosci, D-72070 Tubingen, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Wang, Yanjun,Wang, Anqian,Zhai, Jianqing,et al. Tens of thousands additional deaths annually in cities of China between 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C warming[J]. NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,2019-01-01,10